By Nick Stamatakis
As you will see in the news (below), Turkey and Israel have reached the brink of war. We have stated many times that as we stand at the 50th Black Anniversary of the 1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus, the conditions that made this invasion possible have been reversed. No matter what approach one takes, Israel’s security was among the top issues that made this invasion “allowable” by the Gr. Britain, which led the way, and the US, which followed. Less than a year earlier, on September 1973, during the Yom Kippur War, the Greek “transitional” government of Markesinis-Papadopoulos had refused to allow American cargo planes to cross the Greek air space and supply Israel with weaponry. This was a fatal mistake, and Dr.Kissinger did not fail to mention it in the strongest terms to the FM of Greece, Mr. Xantholpoulos-Palamas, when they met in the NATO SYnod in Brussels in early November 1973: “You will pay for this!” Kissinger said… In the months that followed, the UK and the US practiced just that, and half of Cyprus passed on to the Turkish armed forces.
Fifty years later, President Erdogan had openly threatened Israel with invasion. On the surface, the 1974 conditions have been reversed, and we would not be foolish to plan to expel the Turkish occupation forces from Cyprus. Not so fast! In 1974, the World was relatively stable in Cold War fashion. It is now fluid geopolitically, sliding fast towards multipolarity, with the West and Israel showing many signs of weakening, militarily, economically, and politically. Israel is surrounded by 500 million Muslims, who have demonstrated their increasing political and military strength. Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE have joined the BRICS and formed a close alliance. Turkey might also join if the West keeps applying pressure. Just a few days ago, China managed to unify all the Palestinian factions and political groups in an organization to become a recognized Palestinian State. Israel is under attack from not only Hamas but the Houthis (who have managed to reduce the Red Sea maritime traffic by 80%!!) and Hezbollah. At the same time, Iran has shown a little of what it can do with its hypersonic missiles – supplied by Russia.
On the other side, Greece is led by a corrupt leadership, which has shown multiple signs of phobia against Turkey. Why is Greece spending billions upon billions to buy Rafales and advanced F-16s if she doesn’t plan to use them at least minimally? I remind you that in 1974, Greece had the upper hand militarily with brand-new F-4 jets and advanced submarines, which were ordered not to attack the Turks. The Cypriot political system has a better chance to promote the national interest but lacks the military capabilities – this is why all Greeks on the “patriotic side” call for re-introducing the “Unified Defense Area” between Greece and Cyprus.
The conditions may seem perfect for reclaiming Cyprus from the Turks, but they are also very risky when Mitsotakis leads the Greek government. Greece should have maintained better balance between West and East (Russia-China), to take advantage of the momentous geopolitical shifts ahead of us.
July 22, 2024, n.stamatakis@aol.com www.helleniscope.com
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Israel urges NATO to expel Turkey over threats to ‘invade’
Israel’s foreign ministry demanded Turkey’s “expulsion from the regional alliance.
I doubt that Israel has any say on who gets expelled from NATO. It would be great, for Greece if it did, but, I can’t see it happening. Its grand standing on Israel’s part. Turkey threatened Greece with invasion and NATO didn’t expel her.
It would be foolish to underestimate the influence of the pro-Israel lobby in the US and in Europe. Prime example: they had no choice (if they wanted Israel to survive) but to throw their support to Trump. This in itself almost guarantees Trump’s victory.
Turkey is with one foot out of NATO. Just today I saw that the Russians will provide engine’s for the new Turkish fighter, KAAN. In the recent episode with Greece south of Kassos they activated their Russian S-300 missiles. The moment they announce their decision to join officially the BRICS and they are accepted, that moment they have lost membership in NATO. The rest will depend on what final status quo the Great Powers (US, Russia, China) agree on. It is highly likely that Greece and Cyprus will stay with the West (Cyprus has two sovereign bases after all and it would be impossible to do otherwise). If this is the case, Turkish presence ion North Cyprus will inevitably finish.
It is far less complicated for Article 5 of NATO to be invoked if one party is not in NATO…
It is easier for the Turks to cause trouble with Greece while in NATO, just like they did with Cyprus, because nobody will want to get involved with Article 5, because that Article was always designed and interpreted to protect from “external” threat, not “internal disagreement”…that’s why they’ve been violating airspace and sea boundaries for decades…they know NATO won’t get involved in an “internal fight”…
Well EU has to protect its borders against third countries so the Greek and Cypriot members of European Parliament must demand Europe to form Army Navy and Airforce to defend its borders against Turkey and other countries that are not EU members.
Bibi has always been a fierce phil-Hellene. He has often spoken in favor of Greeks against the Turks and was instrumental in Israeli-Cypriot hydrocarbon drilling collaborations. (Many Labor-Party German Jews are not and and can be very Kemalist.) Ben Gurion was also a phil-Hellene and vacationed in Greece often.
Early in Israeli history., many secular Jews could not be married by Orthodox law, and so went to British Cyprus to marry. Also many Israelis became very good friends with Cypriots serving together in the British forces against Hitler. (Similarly Rauf Denktash and Spyros Kyprianou were friends from their days in the British forces. Greek and Jewish returning diasporas are very similar in trying to bring their countries in line with their former homeland or in avenging the actions of other powers against their relatives. Jews have Russian, French, British, American, and Turkish factions much like Greeks do.
Why are you afraid to comment with your name? Bibi first and foremost is an insane Zionist and he is bound to lead Israel to extinction. I will write a full analysis soon. As Greeks we are interested for Israel to exist peacefully with its Arab neighbors and we can easily serve the purpose of “Strategic Depth” between Israel, Greece and Cyprus. But the way things are going now, Bibi’s insanity is likely to bring Iran and Turkey together and eventuall get Russia involved in a wider war. If the first option happens we can hope to kick the Turks out of Northern Cyprus. In the second option we will lose Cyprus forever – and this will happen after first Israel is exctinct. Have you noted how many hundreds of thousands of Israelis already left the country? We already reported on many of them buying property in Greece and Cyprus.