PHOTO: Sergei Shoigou met with the new Iranian President Massoud Pezeskian.
By Nick Stamatakis
After days of the Middle East beating the drums of war, we suddenly see the first rays of de-escalation. It was first the reports on the phone call between Defense ministers Andrey Belousov and Lloyd Austin on July 12, which averted an assassination plan on Putin and Belousov himself – but also opened the way for some more rational thinking in both capitals (please see our today’s post). Then, after Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated, and as Sergei Soigou was getting ready to visit Tehran (yesterday), we were flooded by reports on countless Russian cargo planes landing in Tehran filled with missiles and portable electronic warfare equipment.
Soigou’s meeting with the Iranian leadership was planned ahead of time, but not the cargo planes transferring substantial military material. Iran operates the S-300 Russian missile system and surely received more missiles from Russia. However, the Israeli Air Force has already practiced against the S-300s Greece that has been stationed in Crete, and they likely have found a way around its powerful radar. Nevertheless, the transfer to Iran of very effective Russian electronic warfare equipment (likely with Russian operators) is the new element here, and it is this development (along with other weapon systems that we do not know about) that changed the atmosphere, inducing some rationality on the Israeli side. Suddenly, according to multiple reports by the Financial Times, Mossad, the IDF, and (domestic security) Shin Bet, all turned against Netanyahu, demanding de-escalation.
Russia already has military bases in Syria fully equipped with advanced weaponry; based on these advanced weapons, Russia was able to win against the US attacks attempting to overthrow President Bashar Al Assad during the last decade. President Trump tried a mostly “theatrical” missile barrage on Syria, with minimal practical results. During the past few decades, the Israelis and the Russians have found a “modus vivendi” in the Middle East. It entailed a notification by Israel to the central Russian command anytime they wanted to hit a Hezbollah target in Syria.
This arrangement worked up to a few months ago, when Netanyahu kept assassinating anyone, anywhere at will, and the war in Gaza kept expanding to involve the other two Iranian proxies. At the beginning of this year, Russia and Iran signed a very important defense treaty – and we are now witnessing the results. For the first time in decades, Russia, which was very careful to get involved in any military action against Israel, will now do what the U.S. used forever to do in the Middle East.
Supplying Iran with Russian electronic countermeasures, as we are now learning, means that the famous “Iron Dome” will be rendered very vulnerable and would not be able to defend against Iranian missiles, esp. the hypersonic ones likely to be transferred to Iran, the Houthis and Hezbollah by Russia.
This hard reality suddenly hit Tel Aviv, and therefore, we saw all kinds of internal security chiefs rising against Netanyahu (please link here and here—but there are many more reports). Now, efforts to de-escalate have a chance to find traction, as it became clear that Israel has no chance to win against the Iranian forces and their proxies. We analyzed much of this in an extensive article on August 1st, titled “Insane Netanyahu and the Zionists Will Fail To Cause Wider War”
The above does not mean we will not see a robust response from Iran; on the contrary, it will be swift and send a clear message. At the same time, it will be controlled, not hit civilian targets, and will allow de-escalation to start. De-escalation serves the interests of Russia, China, and, above all, Iran itself.
August 6, 2024, n.stamatakis@aol.com www.helleniscope.com
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If Iran has better weapons you can be sure the war WILL ESCALATE. The Shiite prophecy of the world in chaos will bring the 12th Imam, whom they anxiously await. It is a stupid move by Russia to give them anything so powerful. The Shiites also practice al-taqiya, lying to non-Muslims to advance their faith. Once they feel confident enough, they will turn on Russia.
Iran is largely in cooperation with Russia (early this year they signed a very big defense pact) and China. They invented chess as I have said many times – they will not act out of rage alone. Also the US sent a delegation to Tehran a few days ago, also looking for de-escalation: they DC deep state will lose “bigly” in November if a regional war erupts and gas prices go through the roof. Finally, Iran knows they have the upper hand: The Houthis alone (Iranian proxies) managed to stop 80% of the Red Sea and Suez Canal traffic – and US and Western allies were unable to stop them. If the Houthis managed that much, you can imagine what Iran along with Hezbollah can do to harm Israel. Netanyahu is finished one way or the other.
To Helleniscope: Okay, so, maybe Netanyahu is finished. But is Israel itself finished? And even more importantly, do you WANT Israel to be finished?
For myself, I hope that Israel can continue.
It is to our interest to have Israel continue. As I have explained, Netanyahu is leading Israel to extinction. That’s why he is facing opposition by the IDF and Mossad.
Once again I pose this question to everyone regarding Muslims: “If Muslims, according to their faith can lie to non-Muslims in order to advance their religion, how can you trust them?”