EDITOR’S NOTE (Nick Stamatakis). We have been speculating about this possibility for a long time, as Helleniscope’s readers remember. And finally, it happened. After 25-30 years of broken promises for a path to EU membership, along with numerous other incidents in its relationship with NATO and the West, Turkey seems to have taken a powerful turn to the East. The country has high inflation and other financial problems, but it also has a promising economy and a population close to 80 million. Additionally, starting with Azerbaijan, just to the East, Turkey has strong affiliations with many Turkic states and populations all the way to China and Mongolia.
Will she be accepted into the BRICS? Vladimir Putin was clear about this a year ago: “Only if you leave NATO,” he said to Erdogan. This position might have changed a little, as Russia and China can already see that NATO is actually a “paper tiger” (except for the posible use of nuclear weapons by the madmen who run the US), and soon, after the two wars in Ukraine and Gaza, find their way to an inevitable settlement – with or without a major regional war – its significance will be diminished. Just the fact that the US has run out of essential ammunition tells you all you need to know. Britain, France, and Germany, who had mighty armies earlier, are now reduced to insignificance.
For Greece (and for Israel), this can be a watershed event. It mostly depends on whether President Trump will manage to take office in January. If he does, as we hope, then America, at the minimum, will have an excellent chance to hold its ground and start rebuilding its international relationships on a different, multipolar basis. The whole Middle East network of relationships will be re-adjusted to account for the facts on the ground, especially for Egypt, Iran, S.Arabia, UAE, and Ethiopia, now members of the BRICS. In such a scenario, the leading “exchange” between the West and the East – in a possible new “Yalta agreement” – will be Israel’s survival as a state. This will require Cyprus and Greece to act permanently as an umbilical cord connecting Israel to the West. To have a fair exchange in this respect will require Turkey to remove its troops from Cyprus one way or the other. I expect that this may happen sooner rather than later.
September 2, 2024, n.stamatakis@aol.com www.helleniscope.com
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source – middleeastmonitor.com
The BRICS group, which represents some of the world’s largest emerging economies, has been gaining influence on the global stage, advocating for a multipolar world order and seeking to challenge the dominance of Western-led institutions. Turkiye’s interest in joining BRICS aligns with its broader strategy to assert a more independent role in global affairs, particularly as it navigates complex relationships with both the West and other global powers.
Turkish officials have highlighted the potential benefits of BRICS membership, including enhanced economic cooperation, access to new markets and opportunities for collaboration in key areas such as infrastructure, technology and energy. Turkiye’s strategic location, bridging Europe and Asia and its growing economy, make it a valuable addition to the BRICS bloc.
This move comes at a time when Turkiye’s relations with the West, particularly the United States and the European Union, have been strained over a range of issues, including defence, human rights and regional conflicts. By aligning more closely with BRICS, Turkiye appears to be signalling its willingness to explore alternative alliances that better serve its national interests.
The application process is expected to be complex, with Turkiye needing to secure the approval of all current BRICS members. However, if accepted, Turkiye would become the first NATO member to join the group, marking a significant shift in the global balance of power.
As the world watches Turkiye’s bid to join BRICS, the outcome could have far-reaching implications for both the country and the broader international order.
The EU won’t let Turkiye get away. Perhaps Turkiye will leave NATO, but EU security is largely dependent on the Turkish military.
A likely scenario is that the EU will create a new free-trade and travel “Schengen-type” zone for Turkiye, a second-tier Europe that combines Greece with Turkiye and probably Cyprus. Erdogan simply couldn’t resist such an offer. It would resemble a new Ottoman empire.
Interesting thoughts but I think out of place. Which EU? The EU doesn’t have a military branch. European economy without Russian energy is heading fast into recession if not depression. Turkey, unlike Greece, is led by patriots who can read plain math. With a vibrant agricultural and industrial product and a big population what interest do they have to tie themselves to a declining power? They have gradually decided to head east. They are also dependent on Russian energy – including nuclear energy. The only thing that would keep them to the West is a grab of Greek and Cypriot EEZ rights – and Mitsotakis is directed to be generous. There lies the big game being played now in front of our eyes. In the end, the balance will likely force Turkey to turn the East: even if Erdogan is replaced, the population is largely supportive of radical Islam and anti-Israel. Another possibility is a three-way split of Turkey along the cultural lines diving the country: A Kurdish state in the south east and a pro-EU state in Western Turkey with the central Turkey remaining Islamist. But as I said the patriotic leadership and the Army will not allow it easily.
Greece’s maritime borders are simply not defensible. This has been shown over and over by the refugee crisis that has rocked Europe, with thousands of refugees washing up on Greek shores. It is only Turkiye that has been able to counter this. By combining Greece (and Cyprus) with Turkiye, it solves an EU headache on multiple levels: their security problem, their unwillingness to allow Turkiye admission into the current Schengen area, and also providing the EU a much needed tax revenue source.
Yes, for Turkiye’s part, access to Greek and Cypriot EEZ rights would be an offer that couldn’t be refused. Turkiye would be made the overlord of Eastern Europe. The idea of a “two-speed” Europe is not new and has been floated around for quite some time now.
This line of thought assumes that we Greeks have to submit to some form of enslavement again to the “Ottomans”. I know enough history and culture/identity of Greece and Cyprus to tell you that it would not be possible. Yes the traitors like Mitsotakis and the rest of the political class will pocket tons of money but they will also face resistance from several corners. The US by pushing such policies will undermine their policies in the South China Sea. You cannot project two different international Law of the Seas principles in two parts of the world just because it fits your interests. Why? Because the US is not the “Hegemon” anymore… And they will have to deal with the fact that their aircraft carriers are sitting ducks – and ready to be sunk to the bottom of the ocean.
In addition, Turkey (in a similar way as the US) cannot play it both ways. In the end it will have to make a choice – either East or West… If it keeps balancing like that then the East and the West will eventually solve the problem between them by “trichotomizing” or at least “dichotomizing” Turkey.
Because Turkey has patriotic leadership I expect that they would prefer to keep the country in one piece and turn East permanently.
Greece’s maritime borders are 100% defensible. Greece has submarines and fighter aircraft at least one generation more advanced than Turkey’s and its military personnel is much better trained. What Greece lacks is patriotic leadership to apply this weaponry. The same exact situation was true in 1974.
No, I am not suggesting at all that Greece and Cyprus would have to submit to Turkiye as an neo-Ottoman overlord. Rather, what I am suggesting is that the rest of the EU would probably be willing to throw both Greece and Cyprus under the bus in a desperate measure to save “Catholic Europe”.
They have been doing that for centuries, I would say, since the Crusades, a thousand years ago. This is why the “Franks” (meaning the Westerners) are traditionally being hated, especially in the Greek Islands, more than the Turks.
Η Τουρκία είναι παίκτης στην διεθνή
σκακιέρα , η Ελλάδα είναι παίκτης , αλλά πριν από το παίκτης προηγείται
μια λέξη που ντρέπομαι να αναφέρω δυστυχώς.
after reading the following article (Clash fo the Patriarchs) , now I can appreciate the perspective from which you report on this blog: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/05/russia-ukraine-orthodox-christian-church-bartholomew-kirill/677837/?fbclid=IwY2xjawFEF-JleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfS8bW09T4Gyu3bmk8c2rzjQaQvniDITwM3Mt3kPNKHEEjiRKx3nJuZBNw_aem_t6AB4Z8It0cBX7N6mSAlrQ
Going to be interesting to see the geopolitical situation Bartholomew gets put in as Turkey pivots East.
Erdogan knows that Bart is a CIA asset, not sure he’s going to allow that to last much longer
I have been warning about these possibilities for over six years – since he “decided” to give Ukraine “Cacocephaly”…