PHOTO: A fast-changing map of Syria. The green and light green of the rebels are now expanded and occupy most of the red in the south. Along the border with Jordan, a corridor is to be formed between Israel and the new Kurdish state in the Eastern part of Syria. The yellow is the new Kurdish state being formed in Syria.
TO TRANSLATE USE THE FLAGS AT THE BOTTOM OF YOUR SCREEN
By Nick Stamatakis
To understand the confusing situation in Syria, where multiple interests of Great Powers and smaller powers are conflicted, one has to start with the fresh air bubbles coming from the meeting of Russia, Iran, and Turkey in Qatar (link here), emphasizing Security Council resolution 2254. Not many Security Council Resolutions – if any – have worked in the Middle East and we Greeks know it better than anyone else because of Cyprus. Much more helpful is the interview of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov right after the meeting (must watch – link here). Lavrov gave a first indication early yesterday by proclaiming that “he recognizes the legitimate opposition in Syria”. It may be too early to draw any conclusions but after listening to all kinds of information over the last 24 hours I can highlight the basic trends, after the fall of the Assad regime:
- The Kurdish rebels east of the Euphrates River are dominating this big and oil-rich geographical area, helped by American A-10 fighter jets. They are now likely to form a state there, analogous to the Iraqi Kurdistan. Whether these two will unite forming a unified Kurdistan as a wedge between Iran and Turkey is still a very shaky proposition.
- As Israel has created a 5-mile zone outside its borders at the Golan heights, rumors started circulating about an Israeli corridor towards the new Kurdish state in Syria.
- A Turkish-controlled sector will be maintained in the North of Syria, where Turkey has created buffer zones in three invasions in the last few years. Turkey will not have control of the new government to be formed in Damascus despite some Turkish flags flying in certain areas.
- Mohammed Al-Julani, the leader of the jihadists who stormed all Syrian cities in very few days, despite threats of beheadings of Christian leaders (Damascus is the seat of the Antiochian Patriarchate), seems to refrain so far from any extreme actions. He already made a conciliatory statement towards the Alawites, but it is too early to make a judgment on such issues. We know that he is controlled by Western Intelligence and his bosses have probably sent specific instructions on this issue.
- From the above facts, it seems that the main result of the new status of Syria will be cutting off Iran from its geographical corridor to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hamas in Gaza is a different story and has a lot to do with Turkey.
- To counterbalance the loss of this territory, will Iran proceed to put together a nuclear bomb? It seems likely as it is only a few days or weeks away, technologically speaking. This eventuality may help to form a “balance of terror” in the Middle East as it had between East and West during the Cold War. Iran certainly has proven to have the means of delivery of a nuclear weapon.
- The only way to defeat Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank will be the formation of a Palestinian state when the whole situation settles. Turkey will be forced to cut off Hamas one way or the other (very possibly blackmailed by the expansion of the Kurdish state or states).
- Russia will likely maintain its two military bases in Tartus and Hmeim, near the Mediterranean coast of Syria. We have learned that it already sent reinforcements to increase the security of the bases.
It was obvious that a line of communication had opened between President-elect Trump and the Russian leadership. It was betrayed by the fact that President Assad was dropped like an empty sac and the opposition forces were allowed to take over without a fight in a matter of days. Also, President Trump suddenly made a statement in Paris saying that “Assad has lost the support of the Russians”. It was already clear that lines of communication had been established between the Trump transition team and Moscow, with Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson, and others playing a central role and facilitating this. In light of the above, we are entitled to believe that the Ukraine situation is already agreed upon (it is very clear from the facts on the ground) and that a major “New Yalta Conference” is being planned, sometime after President Trump takes office on January 20.
Finally, we cannot understand the full picture of geopolitical developments unless we realize that the center of gravity of geopolitical powers has moved to the East. The Middle East has no longer the significance it had in the past, as mineral resources and population are now centered between India and China and their neighbors in the north, mostly Russia.
December 8, 2024, n.stamatakis@aol.com www.helleniscope.com
DISCLAIMER: The views and statements expressed in this article constitute constitutionally protected opinions of this author.
Nick, as always, a brilliant analysis!
Thanks George – it’s a compilation of what I heard from all kinds of sources…
Nick
Very balanced analysis of a confusing situation. I wanted to add that Trump’s post was placing the collapse onto Putin’s shoulders. It sounds accusatory of Putin. This is what Trump wrote: “Assad is gone,” he said on his Truth Social platform. “His protector, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer.” Its anyone’s guess at exactly what his feelings are.
My feeling is why would Russia drop him now, after all the years of wasting money supporting him, unless Russia is overstretched, financially and militarily by the Ukrainian war. Iran and Hezbolah are the biggest losers. Iran might resort to nuclear weapons, as you said, but Israel will not stand idly by. My bet is that Iran is tired of being humiliated by Israel and will seek a rapprochement with the West. Khomeini is too old, he has shown weakness in retaliation against Israel and the prime minister is a realist, not an idealist. Moreover, Itn can no longer sustain the embargo imposed. My instinct tells me that instead of a cold war, there will be peace.
As you see it’s more complicated than this… Trump himself said to Netanyahu right after the election: “whatever you do until January 20”. He meant that after that there will be “peace in the world”… It’s as simple as that. It explains Tucker’s second trip to Moscow and everything else.
Let’s say that you are right mr. Stamatakis and there was a secret arrangement between Trump and Putin. Isn’t that kinda risky for Russia? Trump is not yet the president and now that Assad is gone, Trump may change his position on Ukraine! Same thing happened in 2022, when Putin trusted Zelensky and withdrew his troops that were near Kiev!
Everything is risky in life. No risk no gain. But in our case both Trump and Putin know that Russia has the upper hand in Ukraine – especially the technological advantage in missiles. Trump’s number one priority and his legacy will be “no more wars”. Neither Russia nor China are interested in fighting eternal wars: Trump, Putin and Zi are interested in fair business. They have common enemies who promote wars and world dominance: the military industrial complex and the “banisters”. Should I remind you that the same bank families own the Federal Reserve and the Central banks of many nations including Greece? These are the common enemies and Trump already said as much. If these enemies of humanity are to be defeated Putin cannot do it alone… the same for Trump… there you have the reason for their cooperation.
I don’t see the connection with Syria! Assad and his country were not controlled by these bankers you mention. Syria was an independent country that in 2011 was targeted by US proxies and because of that started depending on Russia. Syria is the house of the Antiochian Patriarchate and has approximately 850.000 Orthodox Christians! So, how the cooperation of Trump and Putin in destroying Syria helps anybody and anything? The only winner is Israel that will conquer easily and without a fight a part of Syria!
I was pointing to the wider picture. The war is global and if you “lift the cover” you will find the globalists/Zionists/banksters in one camp trying to take over / dominate / exploit the whole humanity and turn the rest of us into “serfs”… Trump or Putin by himself will not be able to put a stop in this process as the globalist camp controls enormous, unimaginable wealth and resources. Only by some form of cooperation will they be able to overcome. Take a look at Romania, Georgia, the UK and elsewhere… They globalists are making a joke of what used to be called “democracy”… You do not need to go far: after such a landslide victory the Republicans have only a 3-seat majority in the House. The fight is global and will continue on a global scale. I am sure that both Putin and Trump understand that much. Whether they will devise a joint approach is a different story.
ey Helleniscope …let me try another moderated post which responds to your views and anti Trumpster Bob Karp….
If there is one thing …Trump, Putin, Edrogan, and Iranian leadership have all agreed with .. is the territorial intergrity of Syria be entirely returned to Syria, and .. that all foreign troops and Terrorist bases withdrawn from Syria.. Helleniscope ..let me remind you Trump ordered the withdrawal of all U.S Troops from Syria, after declaring that ISIS had been defeated ! However, the Zionist ruling parties of America.. rejected his efforts , and he had to settle on leaving illegal U.S troops and bases to protect Israel , Communist Kurds , and oil and gas fields of the people of Syria which have robbed by Syrian Government numbers exactly.. 20 billion dollars in oil revenue for the people of Syria , and added to the Criminal Economic Sanctions policies by Trump and Biden administration of deprived the people of Syria and Government of needed revenue to rebuild their country! The criminal wars on Syria by the Zionist ruling parties of America and Israel have be justified to free the people of Syria from another enemy of Israel and to eliminate another relationship with Russia. however, the following headlines, if true , will tell a different story .. as to who the big winners are the regime change of Assad …and it is Edrogan, Putin, and Iran … and the big losers are the U.S , Israel , Greece and Cyprus…
Breaking News…
Headline News : Syrian militants pledge to protect Russian bases
Damascus fell under the control of armed militants on Sunday
Syrian militants pledge to protect Russian bases –
The anti-government militants and jihadists who toppled President Bashar Assad’s government in Syria have guaranteed the security of Russia’s military bases and diplomatic outposts in the country,
These representatives “have guaranteed the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions on Syrian territory,” the source said, adding that “we hope for the continuation of political dialogue in the name of the interests of the Syrian people and the development of bilateral relations between Russia and Syria.”
Headlines: Turkley , Russia , Iran , Egypt etc etc ..immediately recognizes new Regime of Syrian and promise to help Syrian infrastructure and rebuild Syria ..
Will the new regime continue the same defence policy as President Assad and have Russian help against other Jihadists in Syria, maybe to set up a Kurdish region on Turkey’s border or southern Syria and the Golan Heights))? There again, will the militant regime align itself with the Trump regime and kick out the Russian forces from Syria? If siding with Russia, will they have Russian assistance to retake the Golan Heights and close the remaining illegal US bases on Syrian oil fields?
I would think once the militants set up a legitimate Syrian Government, I cannot see them siding with the US if they feel they are being used and the US is stealing Syrian oil. Let us remember the terrorist groups the US form, fund and assist end up turning on the US regime and their occupational bases. We saw this with the Taliban and groups linked to U.S in Afganistan…
Like I said … Helleniscope .. you should have read the small print after their “Yalta or Astania meeting last week between Putin, Edrogan, and Iran .. .. Russia has contract to be in Syria, U.S and Israel do not ! Who wins .. Edrogan, Putin and Iran win Big ..but the biggest Winner is Trump ..who will finally be able to tell Americans ..that U.S troops and Bases will be withdrawn from Syria.. as he wanted to do 5 years ago! And of course .. all anti -Assad government Economic Sanctions warfare .. are now terminated , and the New recognized Syrian Government is in power , and Assad is out …and therefore will be able to resume without restriction trade with Turkey , Iran and all the other countries of the world ! And Guess what ..there will be peace for the Christian population of Syria , still under the protection of Russian Orthodox military bases in Syria !
As for Zionist ruling parties of Israel and America .. will they begin a Propaganda campaign to delegitimize their Moderate Rebel takeover of Syria .. and invade them as part of the war on Terrorism! Stay Tuned !
Hey Nick.. all your approved post , you reply to , so I would appreciate a reply to my moderated post!
As I said in my moderated Post..”As for Zionist ruling parties of Israel and America .. will they begin a Propaganda campaign to delegitimize their Moderate Rebel takeover of Syria .. and invade them as part of the war on Terrorism! Stay Tuned !”
Headline News….U.S supports invasion of Syria by Israel to protect borders from Terrorist
Headline News: Israel launches ‘one of the largest’ attacks on Syria in history – media
Warplanes have reportedly hit more than 250 military targets in the country
Christians of America .. have funded billions of dollars to the Jewish Zionist governments of Ukraine and Israel .. who have used this money to commit War Crimes and Crimes against humanity ..as proclaimed by the International Criminal Court at the Hague ..in issuing Arrest Warrants on Netanyahue and his regimes!
And who provided all this money .. and who has armed the Ukraine, Israel ,Taiwan , Greece , Turkey etc etc … to continue to destroy and bring death and destruction to humanity ! The Ruling Republican and Democratic Zionist Party and their corrupt and criminally liable News Medias of America,..Greece and the rest of the Crime Syndicate called EU/Nato… … And of course the Evangelical Protestant ruled American public ..will gleefully feel good ..and send more money to rid the world of Terrorist , sponsored by them! The bombing are designed to do what they have done in libya, Yugoslavia and all the countries of the world ..make them impotent to feed their children and maintain the welfare of their country!
So Helleniscope .. and what do you think Trump ..did not know about this ?
Trump was specific to Netanyahu right after the elections: “Whatever plans you have until January 20”. Yes, Trump made “fresh air” statements recently but does anyone doubt that he will keep his word and end the war in Ukraine? Anyway – he has no choice as the West has lost the arms race and it needs at least 10-12 years to recover.
Israel can make believe they have achieved something until the day Iran announces they have a nuclear weapon. That day the Zionist dream (nightmare) will end. Iranians had shown they are ready to make a deal with Trump. But now any deal will likely be postponed until after they have the nuclear weapon.
Geopolitics is a tough but straightforward business – if you know how to calculate the strength of opposing powers.
I remind you that Russia’s General Staff chief, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, reached out to Gen. CQ Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on Nov. 27 to inform him about a planned Russian naval exercise involving hypersonic missiles between Crete and Cyprus. He also told them that the next time a western missile hits Russian territory the Russian response will be immediate against NATO bases and installations in Europe and that NATO had no defense against Russia’s hypersonic missiles. SINCE THEN NOT ONE MISSILE HAD HIT RUSSIAN TERRITORY FROM UKRAINE. NOT ONE.