EDITOR’S NOTE (Nick Stamatakis) Veteran U.S. diplomat and Russia analyst Jim Jatras is categorical: there will be no Trump–Putin peace deal over Ukraine—and the confrontation between Washington and Moscow is set to worsen before it improves. Jatras stresses that the Ukraine war is not a local conflict but fundamentally an American proxy war against Russia, making any quick bargain impossible. Symbolic steps—such as reopening consulates, resuming direct flights, or extending strategic arms control treaties—could be taken unilaterally by a U.S. president, but Jatras doubts the political will or bureaucratic alignment exists in Washington to pursue them.
He outlines possible outcomes:
A dangerous escalation toward great-power war.
A decisive Russian military victory that collapses Kyiv’s regime.
Or a grinding conflict that, while still brutal, will not stretch on for years.
Even if a paper deal were signed, he warns, Washington’s track record of reversing commitments across administrations makes U.S. guarantees unreliable. Any neutrality or security agreement for Ukraine would likely be torn up in short order.
Jatras also notes that U.S. strategy is shifting: the establishment wants to “park” Ukraine while pivoting toward Iran and, eventually, China, using NATO and the EU to keep Europe aligned and paying for Ukraine’s war effort.
At stake is the future of NATO itself. A Russian victory could unravel NATO politically, while a frozen conflict would merely keep NATO “on Russia’s doorstep.” For Jatras, only a decisive end—likely on Moscow’s terms—can stop the bloodshed.
This sober outlook leaves little room for optimism. It is a stark reminder that the crisis in Ukraine is not on the verge of resolution and that Washington’s global ambitions may drag Europe into deeper instability.
HERE IS THE EXCELLENT ANALYSIS:
Regretfully, I’ve come to agree with Jim.
Perhaps getting the EU to “pay” for a few years while “filling the coffers” of the US-based MIC lobby without US taxpayer contribution is the underlying goal all along? That outcome seems to align with the current administration’s “Export policy”…although, would the EU apply a tariff on the US “goods” imported into the EU in this case, and pass the cost on along to Zelensky, the “consumer” of the goods? :)
FWIW, while I don’t expect a peace deal, I do expect the fall of the Kievan regime followed by a cold peace.
I simply can’t see a way in which the EU picks up the military slack. Far from it. I think we’re seeing the slow-motion degradation of NATO and the extinction of the EU. Even civil war.
I agree with Jatras. I predict Russia will retake the lost Russian cities of Kiev, and Odessa.