EDITOR’S NOTE (Nick Stamatakis). Donald Trump’s much-hyped “Project Freedom” has collided with a hard geopolitical reality: America cannot sustain a confrontation with Iran without the cooperation of its Gulf allies — and that cooperation is fading fast.
Reports that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states resisted the operation, including limiting access to bases and airspace, expose the weakness in Trump’s strategy. Without Gulf support, Washington lacks the regional infrastructure needed to make threats against Iran credible.
That is why this may be the moment for Trump to fold them.
The Gulf monarchies provide much of the logistics, intelligence coordination and political cover that underpin any serious US military posture in the region. If Riyadh and its neighbors no longer want escalation, escalation effectively stops there.
And the Gulf states have good reason to step back. They have watched oil markets shake, shipping routes destabilize and the threat of Iranian retaliation grow closer to home. Their priority is stability, not another American-led regional showdown.
Above all, they have seen 15 out of 16 American military bases in the Gulf devastated by Iran to the point that they are unusable and almost irreparable. This is not my opinion – it was in mid-March. But over the last few days, major reports from CNN and the Washington Post have supported these facts.
Which leaves Trump in a difficult position. He can keep issuing threats that fewer allies are willing to support, or he can recognize the strategic reality: without Gulf cooperation, he no longer holds the cards he thought he did.
Yesterday, US Navy commanders refused to obey Trump’s order and enter the Hormuz Straits!!!
This is the danger of mistaking bravado for leverage. Once allies stop following, and even your own Army refuses to follow you, the bluff begins to unravel.
Trump’s retreat on “Project Freedom” is therefore more than a tactical pause. It is an acknowledgment that the coalition for confrontation is over, while the Gulf increasingly signals it wants de-escalation, not war.
And when the table knows you cannot truly play the hand, bluffing harder only makes the weakness more obvious.
Sometimes the only move left is to fold.
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Saudi Arabia forced Trump to pause Project Freedom after suspending US access to bases and airspace: report
The scheme is said to have angered Saudi leadership who were not consulted in advance
Just 48 hours after announcing the operation to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the US leader paused the initiative to enable negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Iran had attacked ships across the Gulf and struck a port in the UAE, on Tuesday.
It has now emerged that Trump’s decision to pause the operation was driven by complaints by Saudi Arabia, two US officials told NBC News.
Officials said the Kingdom denied access for any US aircraft to fly through Saudi airspace as part of Project Freedom.
A call is reported to have taken place between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, but the pair were unable to reach a resolution – forcing the US president to axe the operation.
The leaders “have been in touch regularly” and officials are also in touch with vice president JD Vance, US Central Command and secretary of state Marco Rubio, a Saudi source told NBC News.
“The problem with that premise is that things are happening quickly in real time,” the source said about the announcement, adding that the country was “very supportive of the diplomatic efforts” by Pakistan to guide the countries towards an agreement.
A White House official told NBC News that “regional allies were notified in advance.”
The Independent has contacted the White House for comment.
A diplomat in the region said that the operation was not coordinated with Oman either. “The U.S. made an announcement and then coordinated with us,” they said, adding “we were not upset or angry.”
“Because of geography, you need cooperation from regional partners to utilize their airspace along their borders,” one US official explained about the success of the scheme.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital shipping route for global supplies of oil, fertiliser and other commodities that has been virtually closed since the US and Israel attacked Iran on 28 February, causing global price rises.
Trump said the operation was a “humanitarian effort to rescue ships running low on essentials after more than two months trapped in the Persian Gulf”.
He said the mission would begin on Monday morning and warned that any interference would “have to be dealt with forcefully”.
Saudi Arabia’s refusal to allow US naval forces to continue their “escort” of ships is a severe slap on Trump’s face. He never even consulted them. He’s thinking is that they would just comply with whatever his feeble mind comes up with. This is why he needs grown ups to advice him, as there were in his first term. Now, he just comes up with an idea, names it whatever sounds good and orders his lackeys to carry it out.
When NATO refused his demands for help, followed by his temper tantrums and threats, it was the beginning of other nations, which alliances had been built painstakingly, to stand up to the toddler in charge of the largest economic and military power in the world. No hope that he’ll be restrained in the future. He’ll act out until even American forces would refuse the constant abuse heaped on them.
Nick, you’re correct. Is it possible however that Trump, being a businessman, has already “gamed” this out?
What has been accomplished that’s consistent with America’s post-NCC narrative?
1. America’s Middle-East bases have been either degraded or destroyed, never to be replaced. Check.
2. America’s dependence upon foreign oil has now been shown to be unnecessary. (We don’t need the Straight of Hormuz.) Check.
3. EU’s dependence upon foreign oil on the other hand has been shown to be absolutely necessary. (They do need the Straight of Hormuz.) Check.
4. The US decapitated the Iranian regime, thereby possibly leading to one that can be negotiated with. Check.
5. The myth of Israeli invincibility has been exposed as the lie that it is. Check.
6. By allowing Israel to take massive Iranian hits, Trump has created a paradigm which makes it more likely that Israel will come to the negotiating table. (Think of this as what Nixon/Kissinger did during the Yom Kippur War: by allowing Arab victories, it forced Israel to negotiate with Egypt. Egypt got the Sinai peninsula back.) Check.
7. If there’s anybody who could declare victory and bring the troops home, it’s Trump. Will he pay a political price for it? So far he hasn’t. Biden paid no price for our humiliating Saigon-style withdrawal from Afghanistan. It was our longest war. For that matter, Trump has ordered the withdrawal of 5,000 American troops from Germany. (A baby-step I grant you but so far the neocons have remained mum.)
8. Finally, I see a deep and widening rupture between the US and Israel. Netanyahu’s arrogant control over the Congress and the Trump administration has suffered irreparable damage. The Democrat Party is now beholden to the anti-Zionists, lock, stock and barrel, while the GOP is beginning to rethink things. (Admittedly, the Zionists control over the GOP is still strong but there are significant demographic fissures here as well [i.e. Boomers who are aging out and all the younger cohorts.].)
Anyway, I see lemonade being made out of the lemons of this unfortunate excursion.
I am hoping you are right George. But the Zionists are businessmen also – much smarter than Trump. And they have already taken many steps as you know to cancel free speech and thus destroy America and establish “techno-feudalism” with a Zionist overarching ideology.
George Michalopulos , all your points are well said , with your critical input. But ,Why your concern on #7 regarding “Trump Paying A Political Price”? Pres. Donald (Lame Duck) Trump has no political future .He is strenuously swimming to reach an oasis beyond the promised land. Pres. Trump got over his head in the WH, as the CEO of Trump International, a notorious hotel owner and now does not know, nor have the experience, nor does he have the qualified staff to deliver to The American People the class act to celebrate on the 250th of the US Anniversary Independence on July 4th 2026. He needs our help. He needs to honor the founding fathers constitutional pledges in substance,
not just rhetoric , he must reset the agenda for America’s Future as Thomas Jefferson,
Daniel Webster insisted, and all the rest of the Pioneering Americans did ,who triumphantly Hellenized The United States of America the last 250 years!