EDITOR’S NOTE (Nick Stamatakis): As a Stony Brook alumnus I am proud of the solid science tradition my alma mater is famous for. But I am even more proud of Helmut Norpoth, the now famous political science professor at Stony Brook, whose model proved to be extremely successful in predicting presidential elections over the past 100 years! Prof. Norpoth is explaining his model, the famous “primary model”, in his website… We used his model in the 2016 presidential election and he proved absolutely correct…
BELOW YOU CAN WATCH HIM IN ONE OF HIS LATEST APPEARANCES…
NEW YORK, NY – Professor and Political Scientist Helmut Norpoth accurately predicted Trump’s 2016 victory a full nine months before the election. Today, he says President Trump has a 91% chance of winning in November 2020. Norpoth, a professor from Stony Brook University on Long Island, uses a model that has correctly predicted 24 of 26 presidential elections.
I don’t go by opinion polls, I go by the real polls; I go by what happens in the primary elections and in those primary election, especially in the early ones, Donald Trump did very well and Joe Biden as many of you may have forgotten by now he came in fifth. Now he did much better in another one in South Carolina and from that point on, but these early primaries, these early votes provide a very powerful metric for predicting what is going to happen in November.
Helmut went on to say that he has never seen an individual win an election who placed 5th in New Hampshire.
The primary model used by Helmut Norpoth, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of all but one of the presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996; it predicted Al Gore in 2000, who lost the electoral vote though winning the popular vote. In recent elections the forecast has been issued as early as January and no later than March of the election year.