EDITOR’S NOTE (Nick Stamatakis):  As a Stony Brook alumnus I am proud of the solid science tradition my alma mater is famous for.  But I am even more proud of Helmut Norpoth, the now famous political science professor at Stony Brook, whose model proved to be extremely successful in predicting presidential elections over the past 100 years! Prof. Norpoth is explaining his model, the famous “primary model”, in his website…  We used his model in the 2016 presidential election and he proved absolutely correct… 


SOURCE: Publishedreporter.com

NEW YORK, NY – Professor and Political Scientist Helmut Norpoth accurately predicted Trump’s 2016 victory a full nine months before the election. Today, he says President Trump has a 91% chance of winning in November 2020. Norpoth, a professor from Stony Brook University on Long Island, uses a model that has correctly predicted 24 of 26 presidential elections.

I don’t go by opinion polls, I go by the real polls; I go by what happens in the primary elections and in those primary election, especially in the early ones, Donald Trump did very well and Joe Biden as many of you may have forgotten by now he came in fifth. Now he did much better in another one in South Carolina and from that point on, but these early primaries, these early votes provide a very powerful metric for predicting what is going to happen in November.

Helmut went on to say that he has never seen an individual win an election who placed 5th in New Hampshire.

The primary model used by Helmut Norpoth, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of all but one of the presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996; it predicted Al Gore in 2000, who lost the electoral vote though winning the popular vote. In recent elections the forecast has been issued as early as January and no later than March of the election year.


  1. Anyone having questions or doubts can contact the professor at his website http://primarymodel.com/contact. But I would be careful not to ask questions about the economy and Trump… The economy and the stock market are not the issues where Trump is risking losing this election…

  2. Nick, I am neither naive or stupid enough to believe Trump has anything to do with the economy. The truth is the market always looks forward, so in that always lies the excuse. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristinmckenna/2020/05/13/5-explanations-for-the-disconnect-between-the-stock-market-and-the-economy/#7c91abb05669
    So the people that control the market are the ones to worry about, not the economy. With this much wealth inequality the stock market is tightly held by only a few, Market dropping or rising has very little to do with the real economy but the headline hype does have enough oomph to sway the voter. Don’t want to rankle any feathers just keep a conceptual eye on what I said. It could be wrong, but maybe its right
    Please have a pleasant afternoon

  3. I have followed the professor and his model closely in 2016, when the economy was not an issue. He proved correct. As far as the real issues of the economy, this is not the place for a full answer. But if one considers renegotiation of trade deals, elimination of an overly regulatory environment and lowering taxes, it would be enough to give Trump substantial credit….


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