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Special Associate – Paris  

08/07/2024 admin

The results of the second round of the French elections caused great relief in all the systemic decision-making centers within the EU, but also internationally. The great danger of Marie Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party obtaining an absolute or even a relative majority in Parliament was averted. The previous polls failed for the umpteenth time.

Relative calm has returned to Brussels, now they can continue the consultations on the composition of the new Commission and the plans for the war in Ukraine. In Berlin, they hope that the rickety “Franco-German axis” will continue to guide the EU. In Frankfurt, the ECB signaled an end to watchfulness. The markets have also calmed down for the time being.

In France, the big bargain took place in the 501 single-seat constituencies (out of a total of 577) in which, in the first round, no candidate had received 50% of the vote. In these regions the “New Popular Front” under Mélenchon, the “Together” of Macron, part of the Republicans and others, worked together with the sole aim of limiting the seats that the RN could take.

The partner parties of the self-proclaimed “Democratic Arc” withdrew from 310 districts their candidates who were ranked third or fourth so that there was only one common candidate against the candidate of Le Pen’s party. This tactic, which had been used successfully several times before, was used again.

In the new National Assembly, no bloc of parties has an absolute majority of the 289 seats. France has already entered a period of political instability, and President Emmanuel Macron is particularly weakened after his party lost around 95 seats and 15.4% of the vote, compared to the previous elections in 2022. The surprise dissolution of the National Assembly, after the European elections, did not achieve the expected results from the French president.

The “New People’s Front” (a motley coalition of Mélenchon’s Insubordinate France, Socialists, Communists, Environmentalists, etc.) won 32 seats in the 1st round and 146 in the 2nd, a total of 178. 12 independent left-wing MPs were also elected.

E. Macron’s “Together” won 2 seats in the 1st round and 148 in the 2nd, a total of 150. 6 independent centrist MPs were also elected.

Le Pen’s “National Rally” won 37 seats in the 1st round and just 88 in the 2nd, a total of 125. 17 independent right-wing MPs were also elected.

The Republicans (the old de Gaulle party renamed under Sarkozy) won 1 seat in the 1st round and 38 in the 2nd, for a total of 39. There are also 27 independent centre-right MPs as well as another 22 of various polar shades.

“National Gathering” received the largest number of votes in both rounds, 29.3% in the 1st and 32% in the 2nd. Le Pen’s party, in the 2nd round, received 1,740,000 more votes than the “New Popular Front” and 2,430,000 more votes than Macron’s party, but won fewer seats due to the cooperation of its two main rivals.

It is the electoral system, of the two-round unicameral constituencies, that prevented the triumph of the “National Rally”. If the British electoral system applied in France, where again there are single-seat districts but which are judged in one round (the first gets the seat) then Le Pen’s party would have won an absolute majority in the National Assembly, because in the 1st round the his candidates were first in 297 districts (majority 289), those of the Popular Front” in 159, of the Macron faction in only 70 and the Republicans in 20.

Now the question is, how will France be governed? Macron can form a government of technocrats with some politicians, which will legislate with occasional majorities per bill. He can also form a more cohesive coalition that will include, in addition to his own party MPs, some of the Socialists and Greens MPs, some of the Republicans, as well as several independents. It is doubtful, however, how much this minority alliance can withstand time and the great challenges of the times.

France, with a public debt of 112% of GDP, a budget deficit of 5.5% and under the threat of the Commission to start the excessive deficit procedure, is sailing in uncharted waters. Macron’s “wings” have been clipped.

And now what will we be born without barbarians (fascists)? as Cavafy would say.



Και τώρα τι θα γένουμε χωρίς φασίστες;

Ειδικού Συνεργάτη – Παρίσι

Τα αποτελέσματα του δεύτερου γύρου των γαλλικών εκλογών προκάλεσαν μεγάλη ανακούφιση σ’ όλα τα συστημικά κέντρα αποφάσεων εντός της ΕΕ, αλλά και διεθνώς. Ο μεγάλος κίνδυνος να αποκτήσει την απόλυτη ή έστω τη σχετική πλειοψηφία του Κοινοβουλίου το κόμμα Εθνική Συσπείρωση (RN) της Μαρί Λεπέν αποτράπηκε. Οι δημοσκοπήσεις, που είχαν προηγηθεί, απέτυχαν για πολλοστή φορά.

Στις Βρυξέλλες επανήλθε η σχετική ηρεμία, τώρα μπορεί να συνεχίσουν τις διαβουλεύσεις για τη σύνθεση της νέας Κομισιόν και τους σχεδιασμούς για τον πόλεμο στην Ουκρανία. Στο Βερολίνο ελπίζουν ότι ο ξεχαρβαλωμένος «γαλλογερμανικός άξονας» θα εξακολουθήσει να καθοδηγεί την ΕΕ. Στην Φρανκφούρτη, η ΕΚΤ σήμανε λήξη επιφυλακής. Οι αγορές ηρέμησαν και αυτές προσώρας.

Στη Γαλλία, το μεγάλο παζάρι έγινε στις 501 μονοεδρικές εκλογικές περιφέρειες (από τις συνολικά 577) στις οποίες, στον πρώτο γύρο, κανείς υποψήφιος δεν είχε λάβει το 50% των ψήφων. Σ’ αυτές τις περιφέρειες το «Νέο Λαϊκό Μέτωπο» υπό τον Μελανσόν, το «Μαζί» του Μακρόν, μέρος των Ρεπουμπλικάνων και άλλοι, συνεργάστηκαν με μοναδικό στόχο να περιορίσουν τις έδρες που θα μπορούσε να καταλάβει το RN.

Τα συνεργαζόμενα κόμματα του αυτοαποκαλούμενου και «Δημοκρατικού τόξου»  απέσυραν από 310 περιφέρειες τούς υποψηφίους τους που είχαν καταταγεί τρίτοι ή τέταρτοι ώστε να υπάρχει ένας μόνο κοινός υποψήφιος απέναντι στον υποψήφιο του κόμματος της Λεπέν. Η τακτική αυτή, που είχε εφαρμοστεί με επιτυχία αρκετές φορές στο παρελθόν, εφαρμόστηκε και πάλι.

Στη νέα Εθνοσυνέλευση κανένα μπλοκ κομμάτων δεν έχει την απόλυτη πλειοψηφία των 289 εδρών. Η Γαλλία μπήκε ήδη σε περίοδο πολιτικής αστάθειας και ο πρόεδρος Εμμανουέλ Μακρόν είναι ιδιαίτερα αποδυναμωμένος, αφού το κόμμα του έχασε περίπου 95 έδρες και 15,4% των ψήφων, σε σχέση με τις προηγούμενες εκλογές του 2022. Ο αιφνιδιασμός της διάλυσης της Εθνοσυνέλευσης, μετά τις Ευρωεκλογές, δεν πέτυχε τα προσδοκώμενα αποτελέσματα από τον γάλλο πρόεδρο.

Το «Νέο Λαϊκό Μέτωπο» (ένας ετερόκλητος συνασπισμός της Ανυπότακτης Γαλλίας του Μελανσόν, των Σοσιαλιστών, των Κομμουνιστών, των Οικολόγων κ.α.) κέρδισε 32 έδρες στον 1ο γύρο και 146 στο 2ο, συνολικά 178. Εκλέχθηκαν και 12 ανεξάρτητοι αριστεροί βουλευτές.

Το «Μαζί» του Ε. Μακρόν κέρδισε 2 έδρες στον 1ο γύρο και 148 στον 2ο, συνολικά 150. Εκλέχτηκαν και 6 ανεξάρτητοι κεντρώοι βουλευτές.

Η «Εθνική Συσπείρωση» της Λεπέν κέρδισε 37 έδρες στον 1ο γύρο και μόλις 88 στον 2ο, συνολικά 125. Εκλέχθηκαν και 17 ανεξάρτητοι δεξιοί βουλευτές.

Οι Ρεπουμπλικάνοι (το παλαιό ντεγκωλικό κόμμα που μετονομάστηκε επί Σαρκοζί) κέρδισε 1 έδρα στον 1ο γύρο και 38 στον 2ο, συνολικά 39. Υπάρχουν και 27 ανεξάρτητοι κεντροδεξιοί βουλευτές καθώς και άλλοι 22 διαφόρων πολικών αποχρώσεων.

Η «Εθνική Συσπείρωση» έλαβε τον μεγαλύτερο αριθμό ψήφων και στους δύο γύρους 29,3% στον 1ο και 32% στον 2ο. Το κόμμα της Λεπέν, στον 2ο γύρο, έλαβε 1.740.000 ψήφους περισσότερους από το «Νέο Λαϊκό Μέτωπο» και 2.430.000 ψήφους περισσότερους από το κόμμα του Μακρόν, αλλά κέρδισε λιγότερες έδρες λόγω της συνεργασίας των δύο βασικών αντιπάλων του.

Είναι το εκλογικό σύστημα, των μονοεδρικών περιφερειών σε δύο γύρους που απέτρεψε το θρίαμβο της «Εθνικής Συσπείρωσης». Αν στη Γαλλία ίσχυε το εκλογικό σύστημα της Βρετανίας, όπου και πάλι υπάρχουν μονοεδρικές περιφέρειες οι οποίες όμως κρίνονται σ’ ένα γύρο (ο πρώτος παίρνει την έδρα) τότε το κόμμα της Λεπέν θα είχε κερδίσει την απόλυτη πλειοψηφία στην Εθνοσυνέλευση, γιατί στον 1ο γύρο οι υποψήφιοί του ήταν πρώτοι σε 297 περιφέρειες (πλειοψηφία 289), οι του Λαϊκού Μετώπου» 159, της παράταξης Μακρόν σε μόλις 70 και οι Ρεπουμπλικάνοι  σε 20.

Τώρα το ερώτημα είναι, πώς θα κυβερνηθεί η Γαλλία; Ο Μακρόν μπορεί να κάνει μια κυβέρνηση τεχνοκρατών μαζί με κάποιους πολιτικούς, η οποία θα νομοθετεί με περιστασιακές πλειοψηφίες ανά νομοσχέδιο. Μπορεί επίσης να σχηματίσει μια πιο συνεκτική συμμαχία που θα περιλαμβάνει, εκτός από τους βουλευτές του κόμματός του, ορισμένους από τους βουλευτές των Σοσιαλιστών και των Οικολόγων του Λαϊκού Μετώπου, κάποιους από τους Ρεπουμπλικάνους, καθώς και αρκετούς από τους ανεξάρτητους. Είναι αμφίβολο όμως, πόσο αυτή η μειοψηφική συμμαχία μπορεί να αντέξει στο χρόνο και στις μεγάλες προκλήσεις των καιρών.

Η Γαλλία, με δημόσιο χρέος 112% του ΑΕΠ, με δημοσιονομικό έλλειμμα 5,5% και υπό την απειλή της Κομισιόν  για έναρξη της διαδικασίας υπερβολικού ελλείμματος, πλέει σε αχαρτογράφητα ύδατα. Τα «φτερά» του Μακρόν έχουν κοπεί.

Και τώρα τι θα γένουμε χωρίς βαρβάρους (φασίστες); όπως θα έλεγε ο Καβάφης.


Πηγή :


  1. This is the most important quote of the article:

    “….If the British electoral system applied in France, where again there are single-seat districts but which are judged in one round (the first gets the seat) then Le Pen’s party would have won an absolute majority in the National Assembly, because in the 1st round the his candidates were first in 297 districts (majority 289), those of the Popular Front” in 159, of the Macron faction in only 70 and the Republicans in 20….”

    So the big “didactic conclusion” (a.k.a. “lesson”) here is that the British Parliamentary Monarchy system applies the “will of the people” more correctly than the French “Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite” system… so much for the guillotines that were used in the French revolution…

    Even the name “Emmanuel Macron” fits perfectly into the old Greek saying…”αλλαξε ο Μανωλιος, και εβαλε τα ρουχα αλλιως…” :)

    I’m still ordering pop-corn, because the French boat is leaking, and it is heading for choppy waters right now…

    • Let’s go a step further. If America’s electoral system was like the British, or the Greek, Trump would have never seen the inside of the Oval Office. A president that took office even though he had 3 million less votes than his opponent is a big problem. And he had the chance to install three SCOTUS in 4 years, while other presidents average two in eight years, leaving his mark for more than a generation. All that because of the electoral college. And to think that its only the republicans who have benefited from that antiquated system. And they might benefit again in 2024

      • Bob, please stop with this warped logic. This is representative REPUBLIC “if we could keep it” Benjamin Franklin had emphatically said. Look what happened in 2020 when we are supposed to believe that an already unpopular, corrupt and failed in everything he touched Joe Biden got more votes than any other candidate in history. Why are the democrats still today resist plans to foolproof the voting system? In France and England they vote in ONE DAY, PAPER BALLOTS and have voter IDs. Why do the corrupt Democrats object to this aspect of the European system? Because they would never see power EVER again.

        • Nick. As I explained further down, a representative republic does not have to have an electoral college. Republic is a Latin word, meaning the people, and democracy, we know what it means. Both are the same system, except for one major difference. In a democracy, as In Periclean Athens, citizens voted for every law. In a representative republic, citizens have empowered our representatives to vote for us. The electoral system was devised to assuage the slave states, and keep them in the union.

          As for democrats resisting plans to foolproof the system, again, it comes down to individual states. They all make their own voting rules. The federal government does not have the power to force a set rule of voting in all states.

          • The federal government should have the power to impose a uniform fool proof voting system. And it will. If it does not the country is in danger. In France they realized this danger many years ago and they switched back to the traditional voting system.

      • Bob,

        The Greek system is extremely warped and corrupt…granting “bonus MP seats” to the party with the most votes, in order to secure a voting majority in parliament and bypass the need for coalition government…
        Don’t forget the powers of the dictatorial “Prime Minister”, who under the threat of penalties and expulsion from the Party forces all members of the party to vote against their conscience, and against the conscience and will of the people… Don’t forget the countless oppressive, anti-Greek “Ministerial decrees” (Executive Orders) that are mostly unconstitutional, bypass Parliament, but require between 5000 – 10,000 Euros each to get a good lawyer and contest in court…quite the Democracy…

        Not sure you really wanted to include the “Greek system” comparison in this argument… :)

        • The electoral system does not make us a republic. Republic means without a king. Republic means that the common people vote representatives, to vote for them, such as the US congress. While democracy is direct representation. Such as the Athenian democracy of Pericles’ time

          • If Rome was theoretically the model of a Republic, was Ceasar not a King? When St. Paul cited his Roman Citizenship and associated right to speak to Ceasar, what did that mean? Do we have that kind of right today as US citizens, to address “Ceasar” directly?

            In Pericles’ time, citizens participated in government, by taking on roles (duties) that changed each year, without salary or payment, in order to avoid corruption (yes, term limits)…the law was explicit – if your assets were one “obolos” greater at the end of your term, the state would seize all your assets because you profited from your civil service – As a result, the citizens literally managed their own governance, because they actively owned and rotated government responsibilities among themselves each year…where do you see such examples of “Periclean Democracy” applied today?

  2. This coalition government will collapse within the year, and in actuality way less than a year. When elections are held they will be soundly defeated.

    Why? Because this left wing government wasn’t put together on any platform other than “keep Le Pen out.”

    That’s not a winning strategy. Not only that, but, all these cobbled together parties have competing ideologies and platforms.

    We’re going to see probably not just the collapse of French politics but France itself. That’s not hyperbolic. We’re probably also going to see just how ineffective this new French government is on full display at the Olympics.

  3. Marcos post reveals , what many have known for decades that the “Pay to Play ” Republic , has never been a Democracy or anything else , but the leader of an International Crime Syndicate who do not represent “WE THE PEOPLE”, but an Aristocracy of Clients who use Capitalism to dominate the Economic , Political , and Military sovereignty of the entire world ! And literally, and right in front of our eyes break .. Constitutional laws, International laws , Nuremburg trial laws and codes… and of course “Rico act laws reserved for “Racketeer and Influence and Corruption Organization with immunity, but like all Godfathers of Crime Syndicate , but not democracies , they could not succeed without the cooperation of the law enforcement agencies and Justice Department of the United States “Republic”

    “78% of the Population of America consider the government and ruling political Parties of the Republic of the United State corrupt thru and thru” Gallop Polls…

    Marco also asks the question . If Rome or America were theoretically the model of a Republic, was Ceasar and Biden not a King?
    And the answer .. to what they have been for decades and how they ruled..was made official recently., and clearly providing not only King Joe Biden , but all the Godfathers of the U.S Republic… to make all their crimes legal!
    The U.S. Supreme Court has made it official: the president of the United States can now literally get away with murder.
    “The relationship between the President and the people he serves has shifted irrevocably. In every use of official power, the President is now a king above the law.”—Justice Sonia Sotomayor dissenting in Trump v. United States
    In a devastating 6-3 ruling in Trump v. United States that is equal parts politically short-sighted, self-servingly partisan, and utterly devoid of any pretense that the president is anything other than a dictator, the Supreme Court has validated what Richard Nixon once claimed: “When the president does it, that means that it is not illegal.”

    As Justice Sotomayor concluded in her powerful dissent:

    “The President of the United States is the most powerful person in the country, and possibly the world. When he uses his official powers in any way, under the majority’s reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution. Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune. Let the President violate the law, let him exploit the trappings of his office for personal gain, let him use his official power for evil ends. Because if he knew that he may one day face liability for breaking the law, he might not be as bold and fearless as we would like him to be. That is the majority’s message today. Even if these nightmare scenarios never play out, and I pray they never do, the damage has been done.”

    The damage has indeed been done. Indubitably. Irrevocably. Unarguably.

    Hellenisope.. “Long live the King and Godfathers of America … to continue to do what they have done for Decades a “Criminal Enterprise’ the like of which .. Mankind has never ever seen, until now ! and I wonder who on earth, could possibly figure this out ! Nick consider this post my allocated “One comment per day post in Helleniscope!


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