International law has been abolished and never before have events been so deliberately misrepresented. A failed attack on Iran, a response from Tehran that almost broke Israel’s neck. The painful birth pangs of new political realities – the war of two worlds.

Introduction

US President Trump does what he wants, his opinion changes hourly and his actions break both American and international law. We already reported on the American attack on Iran in “Trump has decided and is attacking Iran – this will have consequences – for the whole world?” on June 22. Now we have some new insights.

In this article, we look at the complete military and strategic failure of Israel’s and the US’s attacks on Iran, the response of the attacked country that brought Israel to the brink of destruction, the “ceasefire”, the reasons why Iran spared Israel from possible total destruction. Twelve days that had it all.

Israel and the US have failed

Regime change failed – Iranian people united

The war against Iran, jointly planned and instigated by the US and Israel, was lost by both. Even non-political contemporaries are increasingly amazed at the simple-mindedness with which the West, which once dominated the world, maneuvers entire regions into a new catastrophe time and time again, lacks any humanity in the pursuit of its goals and tramples on the rules it has set itself. No matter from which perspective you look at this adventure, it had no chance of success.

Reza Pahlevi as the new Shah – a spoiled brat seeks money

The eldest son of the last Shah left Iran with his father’s family at the beginning of 1979. The billions stolen enabled the multiple university dropout to lead a more than comfortable life. This money seems to have been running out for years. This is shown by lawsuits in the US in which he fought with employees and managers over money. He is therefore broke and looking for a new livelihood. Pahlevi has spent his whole life in the US, has never cared about the welfare of his country and is now being used as a puppet by the US, the British and Israel – with the prospect of a lot of money.

His father had already come to power as an illegal puppet. The Iranian people democratically elected the liberal Professor Mohammad Mossadegh. After he curtailed the power of the British and American oil giants in order to transfer the gigantic oil wealth to his people, the British and Americans reacted promptly. With the secret service operation Ajax, MI-6 and the CIA staged a coup against Mossadegh and installed the Shah as a puppet. He reversed the democratic achievements and returned the wealth to the US and Great Britain. The Americans, for their part, forced the British out of business. Business is business. The Shah was paid handsomely for this whoring service.

Another unsavory step: in order to keep the Shah in power, the Mossad was hired to set up the notorious SAVAK secret police for the new masters. In doing so, it used the support of Gestapo and SS specialists who had been disempowered in Germany in 1945.

Against the background of this history, the West seeks to install this unsavory puppet in Iran, in the unrealistic belief that it can repeat the Ajax campaign. So Pahlevi was allowed to appeal to his people in Paris – nota bene in English. A speech to the British parliament is also planned. These dirty tricks are used to get the Western populations used to the desired ruler. The Iranian people have nothing to say about this – or so the Western powers think.

The following picture shows the young Shah during a visit to Israel on April 17, 2023 with Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel.

The perverse strategy of the West in one picture: After the last democratic president was ousted with the father of the would-be Shah, the cloned son embarks on a similar adventure, nota bene in minne with Netanyahu, who wanted to bomb the way to regime change in Tehran a few days ago, killing scientists and military personnel as well as many civilians in Iran. My sources in Iran just shake their heads: no one in Iran, young or old, even those who liked the old Shah, would want this little boy.

Relatively little damage in Iran, but many deaths

Iran is geographically almost as large as Western Europe, 75 times larger than Israel and has a population ten times that of Israel. It is therefore logical that the damage in Iran in the military exchange of blows with Israel was relatively minor compared to the Jewish state, which is very small in terms of area.

The nuclear program was literally and figuratively only touched on the surface, entrances to underground objects and bunkers were destroyed; symbolic damage. Trump’s reports of victory are so inaccurate that even the American secret services did not remain loyal to their supreme leader in their announcements and were more inclined towards the Iranian view of things.

It is difficult to assess the extent to which the decapitation strikes against scientists and military leaders have weakened Iran’s scientific and military capabilities. In any case, these attacks have had exactly the opposite effect on the Iranian people to that intended by the West: The Iranian people are united now behind their leadership, including the group of young people who want to see the society modernized domestically. The attack has therefore not only failed militarily, but also in terms of society.

Israel on the brink of disaster

Huge damage – photos and reports prohibited

Overview

Our colleague and friend Larry Johnson of Sonar21 – a former CIA analyst – compiled the following overview of the damage inflicted on Israel.

Tel Aviv

If you searched for images of destruction on X a few days ago, you would find what you were looking for. The following image of the complete destruction of Tel Aviv (left) comes from a video that we wanted to use for this article. We are not surprised that the video has been removed – what remains is a screenshot. The photo on the left shows Tel Aviv and the one on the right shows Berlin in 1945. Apart from the fact that the picture of Tel Aviv is in color and the one of Berlin is in black and white, there is no difference in the extent of the destruction. We are not surprised that the Israeli authorities have banned the taking or distribution of photos of the destruction under threat of several years’ imprisonment – albeit with modest success. Needless to say, such photos cannot be found in the Western media.

Israeli defense companies

The Iranians have also successfully attacked Israeli arms companies. The state-owned arms company “Rafael”, which was attacked, is the crown jewel of the Israeli arms industry. Its production program ranges from anti-tank weapons to cruise missiles, marine drones and key elements of the “Iron Dome” and “David’s Sling”, Israeli strategic missile defence systems.

Rafael operates internationally and also has a subsidiary in Germany, Dynamit Nobel Defence.

Infrastructure

The country has three important ports: Haifa, Eilat and Ashdod. The Yemeni Houthis “shut down” Eilat months ago by blocking the Bab-al-Mandab Strait, the entrance from the Gulf of Aden into the Red Sea for ships bound for or coming from Israel. The port has been dead ever since.

Since June 13, 2025, the port facilities of Haifa have been so badly destroyed by Iran in response to the Israeli attacks on Iran that this largest port in Israel will probably only be of very limited use for a long time. This also applies to the oil refinery located in the port area. Both infrastructure objects are core elements of the Israeli economy. Over 30 percent of Israel’s foreign trade is handled via Haifa. The refinery’s share of the Israeli market is probably even higher.

The port of Haifa today

But Ashdod, Israel’s third major port, was also so badly affected that American observers assume that it only has an effective capacity of 40-50 percent.

Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv, another important gateway to the world, has also been largely destroyed.

But the destruction – and this surprised many – also affected the military infrastructure. Israel moved its fighter planes to a British base on Cyprus before June 13, 2025. Without this option, the expensive aircraft would almost certainly have been destroyed as well as the military airfields.

Iran speaks of major personnel losses on the Israeli side

The West diligently propagates how many Iranian scientists and officers were eliminated. The Israelis remain silent about their own losses. Iranian sources report the following: An Israeli security website had been hacked. Information about Israel’s losses was provided there as follows: 6 high-ranking generals; 32 Mossad agents; 78 Shin Bet (domestic intelligence) personnel; 27 naval officers; 198 air force officers; 462 soldiers. We have not been able to verify this information, but it does not seem implausible.

40% of Tel Aviv is destroyed – Israel is out of munitions

American analysts such as Douglas Macgregor assume that 40% of Tel Aviv has been destroyed. Destroyed, not damaged. The pictures above show the difference between “damaged” and “destroyed”.

The Israelis’ much-vaunted “Iron Dome” has failed. Given the extent of the damage, the attribute “pathetic” to describe this miracle shield (Iron Dome) is not far-fetched.

What’s more, Israel has been shot out: credible sources told us that the Israelis have practically run out of ammunition. In those 12 days of war, Israel used up as many defensive missiles as the US can produce in two years. So not only does the system not work as advertised, but its production capacity means that it cannot be used sustainably.

Financially unsustainable system

If you look at the weapons used in this system, it becomes clear that the Iron Dome cannot be operated in a financially sustainable manner in an actual attack. The Iron Dome consists of various components; we illustrate some examples.

Patriot – American

According to Reuters, the Patriot system costs 400 million dollars without missiles. The unit price of a missile ranges from 3.4 to 8 million dollars, depending on the version.

Thaad – American

The cost of a single complete Thaad system (Thaad stands for “Terminal High Altitude Area Defense”) is estimated at around three billion dollars for one system. A system comprises six launchers, a combat kit of 48 missiles, a radar system and a command vehicle.

The costs for the heart of the system, the interceptor missiles, are not publicly communicated. In Russian sources, we found almost fabulous figures: One missile can cost between 45 and 500 million dollars, depending on the design in the export version (e.g. for Saudi Arabia or South Korea). One missile.

Arrow – Israeli

In addition to the aforementioned “Thaad” and ‘Patriot’ systems, Israel developed its own missile, the “Arrow”, due to the inadequate performance of the Patriot system. The costs for this system amounted to approx. 1.5 billion US dollars, one missile costs approx. 2 million US dollars.

It is not known how many rockets of all systems were fired during these 12 days, but it is likely to have been thousands. A prolonged conflict – apart from the fact that the necessary quantities of rockets are not available and have very limited functionality – will result in Israel’s bankruptcy.

“Ceasefire”

No agreement

The announcement of the end of hostilities between Israel and Iran came as a surprise to many. But a detailed look at the 12 days of the war sheds light on the alleged darkness. The longer the mutual bombardment lasted, the more visibly and tangibly Israel ran out of strength, which is not surprising given the geographical and demographic circumstances. Iran is 75 times larger and damage is therefore spread over a much larger area; the population factor of 10 also comes into play. In contrast, Iran had reorganized its command structures after the decapitation strikes of the first few days, which was just as visible and, above all, painfully tangible for Israel.

The ceasefire announced by US President Trump on the night of June 25 is not an official agreement. The current state of calm is therefore not a ceasefire, but at best a temporary silencing of the guns.

Who initiated the ceasefire – and why?

According to Larry Johnson, the request to cease hostilities came from Netanyahu. The reasons are simple and convincing: Israel could not take any longer. The destruction of even the most sensitive objects is unprecedented in Israeli history.

Will the “ceasefire” hold?

This question is relatively easy to answer based on the behavior of Israel and the US so far. If Israel and the US come to the conclusion that they can achieve their goals with a further strike, they will strike. What Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Trump will say before such an attack is completely irrelevant. We have already explained why Donald Trump’s word is worthless in our article “Diplomacy on his deathbed – from peace president to warmonger”.

The fact that Israel and the US made a complete miscalculation before the first strike will also be irrelevant in the decision-making process. Netanyahu must continue to attack, otherwise he will end up in prison and Trump will probably believe that he must always win, as his character does not allow him to admit mistakes.

These imponderables combined with Western hubris will probably result in the war continuing and the “ceasefire” merely being interpreted as a breather for the Israelis. I very much hope that I am wrong.

Israel is possibly at the end of the line

Israeli refugees and internally displaced persons

According to the Times of Israel, around half a million Israelis left the country after October 7, 2023. The newspaper refers to official figures from the Israeli Settlement and Immigration Administration. American sources even speak of up to 1.5 million, although it is not known whether these people only left the country temporarily or permanently. To these figures must be added the Israeli internally displaced persons as a result of the fighting with Hamas and Hezbollah, whose number amounted to around 100,000 in July 2024 according to the “Jüdische Allgemeine Zeitung”.

In view of the Iranian response to the Israeli-American attack on June 13, 2025, another large number of refugees were added. After the Israeli authorities banned Israeli citizens from leaving the country, many simply chartered boats to leave the country by sea. We found no official figures, but there are unofficial reports of up to another 200,000-250,000 Israelis who are said to have left their country.

Refugee flows are on the one hand a reaction to current events. However, they also reflect political and social problems and cause considerable economic and demographic problems. Israel is not exempt from this. There is currently not much sign of the much-vaunted patriotism. Those who trust their leadership never leave their homeland.

Direct and indirect consequences

The infrastructure and economy have been permanently damaged. It is impossible to predict how much time the country will need to rebuild if the ceasefire holds. Israel’s economy has not only been suffering since this conflict, but was already not in the best of shape in October 2023. In the last two years – i.e. up to June 13, 2025 – up to 1.5 million Israelis have already left the country – a catastrophe for a population of just 9 million. If you also take into account the fact that it is mainly those people who can afford to leave a country due to the financial circumstances, this figure is even more alarming, as well-educated, wealthy Israelis who would be essential for reconstruction are now missing.

A further indication of how disastrous the situation is is the travel ban imposed by Israeli Transport Minister Miri Regev – a comparison with Ukraine comes to mind. The information is vague, but the exit ban is in force, even if no details can be found on the website of the Israeli embassy in Berlin.

The demographic consequences of this exodus could be fatal for Israel. Official Israel is always keen to portray the country as a land of Jews, in which the majority of residents are Jews. However, millions of Arabs also live in the country. Their birth rate is significantly higher than that of Jewish Israelis. The waves of refugees following the war and the demographic development will sooner or later result in more non-Jews (Muslims, Christians) living in the country than Jews, which will foreseeably render the Zionist strategy absurd.

In addition, there is probably no passport in the world at the moment that is less attractive. The losers will be those who only have an Israeli passport. It is also difficult to imagine that anyone will move to this promised land. Who wants to live in a country where over 50% of the population is in favor of genocide?

We will comment on the genocidal character of the majority of the Israeli population in a follow-up article.

Why did the Iranians stop the attacks?

Given the circumstances, this is a compelling question. In order to gain some clarity, it is necessary to look beyond the region.

Military mistake?

Our sources assume that a continuation of the Iranian barrage would have resulted in the collapse or even the downfall of Israel within days or weeks. Thus, from a purely military point of view, an opportunity to neutralize Israel in the long term was missed. All those directly and indirectly involved and affected were certainly aware of such a scenario. There must therefore have been serious and very compelling reasons why this historic opportunity was not seized or postponed.Geopolitische

Considerations by China and Russia

Iran has probably suspended hostilities under the influence of Russia and China.

When weighing up all interests, the disadvantages for Russia, China and ultimately Iran appear to have outweighed the foreseeable advantages, at least for the time being.

The following thoughts should be evaluated as such, as we have not been able to gain insight into the Russian and Chinese decision-making process. As a matter of principle, Russia and China do not let us look at their cards:

Firstly, Russia – always de-escalating – must take into account the interests of Israelis of Russian descent. At around 2 million, their number is considerable.

Secondly, a continuation of hostilities would very probably have forced Russia to become more involved due to the existing treaty of principle on strategic cooperation, even if there is no mention of obligatory military support in the event of war in the treaty. There was therefore a risk of becoming a de facto participant in the war against a country whose population has extensive connections to Russia and a large proportion of whom speak Russian. In addition, Russia is making great military progress in Ukraine and does not want to disperse its forces.

Thirdly, remember the patience that Russia exercised towards Israel during the Syrian war, despite the loss of material and, above all, human lives. For example, Israeli warplanes deliberately used a Russian unarmed aircrafts as cover against Syrian air defenses.

Fourthly, a further indication of Russia’s reticence towards Israel is the fact that the involvement of the Mossad in the Ukrainian drone attack against military airfields in Russia is still not officially mentioned in Russia, although many Russian blogs report on it and the facts leave little room for interpretation in view of comparable attacks by the Israelis in Iran.

Fifthly, a full-scale war in Iran would also come at an inopportune time for Russia in economic terms. The north-south transport corridor from St. Petersburg via the Caucasus and Iran to India is nearing completion and is of considerable importance to both countries.

China’s interest is more obvious. It is primarily concerned with economic reasons. A war in Iran would have severely disrupted the Chinese in the realization of their Belt and Road project, in which Iran plays a major role and represents an important link in its further expansion to Africa and Europe.

The Chinese also purchase a great deal of natural gas and oil from Iran. An escalation would have severely damaged China’s economic interests. For example, immediately after the ceasefire began, the US contractually allowed China to purchase oil and gas from Iran without sanctions. This provides Iran with income and China with planning security, if one can speak of reliability and security in agreements with the Trump administration. The current resurgence of social media reports from the White House about 500% secondary sanctions against Russia’s trading partners sends its regards.

Part of the gas and oil that China receives will be used by Iran – another agreement that was reached very quickly after June 25, 2025 – as payment for modern Chinese fighter jets. Previously, China insisted on cash payment, which delayed the realization of the project for a long time.

Interest of the US

We assume that Iran, Russia and China have been given something by the US in return for arms silence: Firstly, the US is allowing China to officially purchase gas and oil from Iran, as already described. In return, the US now appears to have regained access to rare earths from China. This is of paramount interest to the US, especially for the defense industry. Rare earths are not rare and the US also has significant deposits. However, the US does not have the complete production cycle from mining to refining, while China does.

Russia has probably obtained American concessions with regard to Ukraine – the details are not known, but the news on Ukraine certainly suggests this.

Trump has already admitted that Iran has hit Israel hard and those responsible in the White House and the Pentagon are well aware that a continuation of the Iranian attacks would have completely destroyed Israel. As a result, the US would have lost even more face than it already has. From its imperial perspective, it would have been forced to launch further military strikes against Iran, for which the US is neither economically nor militarily (lack of ammunition) prepared. A few B2 bombers would not have been enough, because Iran cannot be dealt with militarily with bombs and missiles alone. Any further attack by the US on Iran would in turn have forced Iran to attack the US bases in the Persian Gulf. And then what?

It seems that not only Israel has been shot out, but that the Americans simply do not have enough ammunition either. Three reasons for this: firstly, for three years the US has been emptying its stockpiles for Ukraine, despite the lack of successes. It is therefore not surprising that the US announced yesterday that it would not be supplying any more weapons to Ukraine. Second, since October 7, 2023, the US has been supplying vast quantities of ammunition for the genocide in Gaza. Thirdly, the US’s production capacities are anything but sufficient to meet demand. As mentioned above, Israel used as many air defense missiles in the 12 days of the war with Iran as the US is able to produce in two years.

The need is now so great that the production of Patriot missiles, for example, is also taking place in other countries. Germany, for example, will produce 1000 of these missiles. However, there is no mention of how long this will take. In a report dated 20 July 2024 , the Russian newspaper Kommersant, referring to the US Department of Defense, writesabout the increase in annual production of missiles for the Patriot missile defence system from 500 to 750 units. To put the figures mentioned here into context: To defend against an Iranian missile, the Israeli air defense system fired up to 25 of these missiles at the target. This figure is extreme and certainly due to specific circumstances. But as a rule of thumb: for every missile that attacks – and Iran has thousands of them – there are at least two interceptor missiles.

Conclusion

The destruction of Israel is in full swing. The reconstruction of partially destroyed Israel (Tel Aviv, ports, airports and arms factories) will take years, but requires that the ceasefire holds, which is completely uncertain as the protagonists are behaving so unreliably. This will result in the owners concerned not putting up any money in the current situation. Would you rebuild an office building if there was a 50% chance that it would be destroyed again tomorrow?

It is highly questionable whether the Israelis who have fled will return in the foreseeable future. Since October 2023, Israel has probably lost almost a third of its population, namely the part that is well educated, wealthy and therefore essential for reconstruction. It is also possible that many of those who have left the country are not part of the genocidal majority of the population – another reason not to return.

There are no indications that would allow us to predict the future of this conflict. It is possible that the war will break out again tomorrow – or not. What we expect with certainty, however, is that the War of Two Worlds, which we have already described in a series of articles, will continue – possibly in a new location, but it will remain bloody.

The only assessment we can make with certainty is that neither the US nor Israel can be trusted. In terms of reliability and respect for international law, these two countries are on a par with Nazi Germany.

Peter Hanseler is a geopolitical analyst who reports from Moscow. Peter was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He holds a J.D. (lic. iur.) and Ph.D. (Dr. iur.) from Zurich University Law School and Master in International Commercial Law (LL.M.) from Georgetown University Law School, Washington, D.C. He has lived in the US, Spain, Switzerland, Thailand and Russia. Peter is independent, his work is not supported by government or private entities. Peter’s website Forumgeopolitica.com publishes its content in English, Russian, German and French.