The Three-Party Formation and the End of the Mitsotakis Era

OUR MAIN PHOTO: An artistic AI rendition of the three front fragmentation in Greece

ΕΑΝ ΠΡΟΤΙΜΑΤΕ ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΑ ΠΑΤΗΣΤΕ ΤΗ ΣΗΜΑΙΑ ΣΤΟ ΚΑΤΩ ΜΕΡΟΣ ΤΗΣ ΟΘΟΝΗΣ

The biggest unknown of the upcoming election: How many of the 46-47% of the voters who abstained last time will come back and vote for Maria Karystianou

By Nick Stamatakis

Before we delve into the particular circumstances that will lead, possibly within the month of May, to the official formation of three new political parties in Greece, let us focus on the three major scandals that force us to call the Kyriakos Mitsotakis government the most corrupt in modern Greek history.

The Mitsotakis government has faced three HUGE scandals that together have fueled a broader crisis of public trust in Greece. The most emotionally powerful has been the Tempi railway disaster of February 2023, in which 57 people — many of them students — died after a passenger and freight train collided near Larissa. Public outrage expanded beyond the accident itself into allegations of systemic negligence, political protection, delayed accountability, and attempts to manage or obscure responsibility. The victims’ families, especially through the activism of Maria Karystianou, transformed Tempi into a symbol of institutional decay, arguing that decades of clientelism, underinvestment, and political impunity culminated in the tragedy. Mass demonstrations since 2023 have repeatedly framed Tempi not merely as a transport failure but as evidence of a dysfunctional state apparatus.

The government has also remained shadowed by the wiretapping scandal (“Predatorgate”), revealed in 2022, involving surveillance of politicians, journalists, and public figures through Greece’s intelligence service (EYP) and allegedly through illegal spyware. What makes this scandal particularly disgusting and indefensible is the fact that it was operated by direct involvement of the Israeli intelligence, which means that Israel has unprecedented access to data that can be used to blackmail many Greek politicians.

Separately, the OPEKEPE controversy concerns allegations of mismanagement and questionable distribution of EU agricultural subsidies through the state payments agency, reinforcing long-standing perceptions of patronage networks and opaque state-business relations. While each scandal differs in nature — public safety, democratic oversight, and public money — together they have contributed to an opposition narrative that the current political system under Kyriakos Mitsotakis is centralized, insufficiently accountable, and increasingly disconnected from public demands for transparency and reform. The scandal was particularly egregious in Crete, where the Mitsotakis mafia family has been engaging in illicit “business” from narcotics to antiquities smuggling and all else… In Rethimnon alone, residents declared over 7.5 million sheep in order to take advantage of the EU subsidies!!

In addition to these scandals, one could refer to numerous mistakes and other political “choices” that prove how incapable the whole government is: From helping Ukraine to be on the “right side of history” to being “submissive” with Turkey to “abandoning Cyprus”, Mitsotakis proved in a myriad ways his incompetence.  It is clear to most outside observers that Greece’s political system, the post-1974 “democracy,” is in a state of collapse.

Three Front Fragmentation

Currently, it is entering a three-front fragmentation phase: anti-government anger, collapse of trust after Tempi/OPEKEPE/wiretapping, and weak opposition consolidation. The Mitsotakis government is at a “conclusive end” is politically plausible as a scenario, but not yet proven electorally.  I would not give any credence to polls that give Mitsotakis party more than 20%.  Why? Because a large swath of the electorate expressed his disgust by abstaining in large numbers. For example, in the June 25, 2023, election (the repeat election that produced the Mitsotakis majority government), turnout was about 52.8%–53.7%, and abstention was about 46.3%–47.2% — the highest abstention recorded in post-1974 Greece. Maria Karystianou, who is regularly polling between 25-30%, is bound to attract many of these voters and to a lesser extent extend the new party by Antonis Samaras.

So here are the broad descriptions of the three new parties in formations now:

Antonis Samaras

Samaras’ party is likely to convene by the end of May, with preparations well advanced and his camp viewing the decision as almost settled. It also frames the project as a reconstitution of the traditional Right after what it calls New Democracy’s degeneration under Mitsotakis. But polling so far does not show Samaras as a mass vehicle: Pulse gives a hypothetical Samaras party 12% potential support, with only 3% saying they would “definitely” vote for it. Much will depend on the public support by Costas Karamanlis and the resignation of many ND parliamentarians, which is being discussed right now.

Alexis Tsipras

A Tsipras party, mainly fragments the left, and applies pressure on the potential Tsipras party, with PASOK and SYRIZA particularly alarmed. But in our opinion, it “stands no chance at all”.  The people understand that they are dealing with a traitor in Tsipras who obeys his puppet masters and sold the Name of Macedonia and maintains cordial relationships with whom, exactly? The Rothschilds!!

Maria Karystianou

Karystianou is the most interesting variable because her appeal is anti-system rather than classically left- or right-wing. She is a charismatic figure who single-handedly proposes Greece’s number one priority: fixing the corrupt political system and replacing it with a meritocratic one.  She regularly polls above 25%, but the surprise for Maria Karystianou will come from the voters who abstained last time – and as we saw, they approached half the electorate.  Maria has inspired these voters and is bound to draw them back to the voting booths.

Coalition scenario: Karystianou + Samaras

A Karystianou–Samaras alliance is conceivable only if both projects define themselves around institutional cleansing, accountability, anti-corruption, sovereignty, and anti-Mitsotakis realignment rather than conventional left-right ideology.

The obstacle is ideological coherence. Karystianou’s support appears strongest among anti-establishment voters, while Samaras draws from traditional conservative/right-wing New Democracy defectors.

The Mitsotakis system faces a legitimacy crisis driven by Tempi, OPEKEPE, surveillance, media-freedom concerns, and cost-of-living pressure. Tsipras’ comeback may primarily cannibalize the left and complicate PASOK’s path to power. The only genuinely cross-system rupture could come from a Karystianou-led reform movement, especially if it can convert moral authority into organization and later ally with a Samaras-led conservative breakaway.

May 11, 2026, n.stamatakis@aol.com   www.helleniscope.com

DISCLAIMER: The views and statements expressed in this article constitute constitutionally protected opinions of this author.

TO SUPPORT HELLENISCOPE OR BECOME A SUBSCRIBER, LINK HERE!!