EDITOR’S NOTE (NickStamatakis). Professor Jiang’s (link here for his bio) three major predictions two years ago were that Donald Trump would win the election, that the United States would go to war with Iran, and that the U.S. would ultimately lose that war in a way that reshapes the global order. In this interview, he says he still stands by the third prediction. His core argument is that Iran is better positioned for a long war of attrition because it has spent years preparing, has learned from prior clashes, and can impose asymmetric costs on the U.S. and its allies. He argues that Iran can pressure not just American forces and Israel, but also Gulf states by threatening energy, shipping, and water infrastructure, which in his view would destabilize the regional order and damage the broader U.S.-led economic system.
His broader prediction is that this conflict would expose weaknesses in the American military model and accelerate the decline of U.S. global dominance. He says the U.S. relies on expensive, high-tech systems that are poorly matched against cheaper drones and missiles, making a prolonged conflict unsustainable. From there, he forecasts not only military failure but also a broader geopolitical shift: the weakening of the petrodollar system, strain on Gulf partners, and a move toward a multipolar world. He also suggests the danger of escalation is high, including possible U.S. ground involvement, which he presents as the kind of trap that could turn a difficult war into a historic strategic defeat.
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