In A Historic Speech, Karamanlis Demolishes Mitsotak-ism

source – newsbreak.gr

EDITOR’S NOTE.  In a remarkable, historic speech, former prime minister Costas Karamanlis proceeded to a fierce attack on the main foundations of “Mitsotak-ism”…  He prioritized the demographic issue of Greece that threatens to reduce the Greek residents of Greece by 20% in the next ten years. He emphasized the support of the middle class as the country’s backbone, and he spoke openly about the multi-polar world we are entering. He ended his speech calling all to unite in this national emergency! The question we all have is: Under who will the Greeks unite? Not Mitsotakis, of course!!

I remind you that Costas Karamanlis and Antonis Samaras, former leaders of ND and former prime ministers of Greece, announced a few days ago that they would not participate in the Conference of New Democracy next weekend, April 5-7.

Below is a short video of his speech. Please link to newsbreak.gr to read this historic speech in Greek—below is an English translation.

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Costas Karamanlis’ Speech at STAR FORUM

Ladies and gentlemen,

According to a recent survey by the European Statistical Authority (EUROSTAT), the low birth rate in Greece shows an explosive rise.

In 2021, 85,346 children were born in our country, in 2022 only 75,921. Births were 9,425 fewer, i.e. within one year a decrease of approximately 11% was recorded.

On the contrary, deaths reached 143,923 in 2021 and 140,801 in 2022. That is, almost twice the number of births!

Unfortunately, this trend is not temporary. It confirms entrenched demographic curves, at worst. Suffice it to note that in 1951, under very difficult social and economic conditions since the country was just emerging from a dramatic period of war—occupation and civil war—and with a significantly smaller population, around 7.5 million, it recorded 155,422 births, approximately twice as many as today, and 57,508 deaths, i.e. one-third (1/3) of births.

According to all projection scenarios, Greece’s population will decrease significantly in the future. In 2050, it is estimated at 8.3 million under the pessimistic scenario and 10 million under the optimistic one.

However, apart from the number of the general population, the projection of its age structure is also very worrying. In 2050, the population of school-aged children will decrease from 1.6 million today to 1 or 1.4 million, depending on the optimistic or pessimistic scenario. On the contrary, according to the research of Professor Byron Kotzamanis of the University of Thessaly, in 2040 the number of people aged 65 and over will approach 30% of the total population! The potentially economically active population, i.e. the ages that could potentially work, will decrease from 7 million in 2015 to more or less 5 million depending on the scenario.

An even more aggravating element in the case of our country is that in the last decade, mainly due to the economic crisis, more than 450,000 of our fellow citizens left Greece, even coming from the most productive part of Greek society. According to the research of the Brain Re Gain initiative that was recently presented, 70% of them have a master’s degree and almost 18% a doctorate or post-doctorate academic title. This is an unprecedented population loss with particularly unfavorable not only numerical but also qualitative characteristics.

In two words: Greece does not give birth, it grows old and weakens! Demography is a ticking time bomb in the foundations of the nation and therefore the most critical national issue in the years to come!

Its effects are multi-layered and under certain circumstances dramatic. They lead to a shrinking of the country’s productive base, to the inability to support the insurance system, to suffocation of medical care, they endanger social cohesion. But they also pose a serious threat to our defense and deterrence capacity. Especially for a country like Greece that lives in an unstable Balkan environment and primarily its territorial integrity and sovereign rights are threatened. Turkey’s hegemonic ambitions will not change vis-à-vis Greece and Cyprus. Delusions are neither permitted nor condoned. Vigor, vigilance, determination, and one-mindedness are required to deal with them. Obviously, population strength is a critical parameter for national security and the defense of national rights.

It is useful to see the European dimension of the issue. Firstly, because we are an integral part of the European family and secondly, because any attempt to stop the adverse demographic trends obviously cannot be done individually at the national level alone, but will require European coordination, cooperation and support.

The demographic perspective in Europe, of course, varies between different countries, but in general it also moves with negative trends. Declining births on the one hand, aging population on the other.

Europe’s share of the world’s population is shrinking exponentially. By 2070 it is predicted to represent less than 4% of the earth’s population. Europe is already the continent with the oldest population in the world. And of course Europe’s share in world GDP will become comparatively smaller.

Although some public debate on demographics has begun at the European level, its importance and the criticality of its consequences in all areas of economic and social life have not been sufficiently and widely perceived.

In recent decades policies have indeed been implemented that are gradually overturning the social model of post-war Europe. Inflexible fiscal austerity, cuts, sometimes drastic, in welfare and support for the weakest groups, job insecurity, fear and uncertainty about the future create a framework that undermines social cohesion, increases social inequalities, makes it more difficult for young people to have a perspective and as therefore it also leaves a negative imprint on the demographic evolution.

Conversely, of course, negative demographic trends have a large share of responsibility for the pessimistic forecast regarding the future of the European economic and social model.

Faced with the looming impasse, some argue that mass migration flows are a realistic solution to Europe’s shrinking workforce. The number of immigrants required to stabilize the European working-age population in the coming years is enormous. It is estimated at 3.2 million new entrants annually. Obviously, this thought is not a solution. On the contrary, it carries serious risks, since such a massive influx of immigrants will certainly cause social unrest, disruption of social cohesion and political instability.

This choice can only be part of an integrated European policy and indeed under the condition of legal, controlled and targeted coverage of jobs by non-European Union workers, depending on the needs and prerequisites of each member state. It is unthinkable the massive and uncontrolled illegal immigration of people who are not willing to respect the rules, legality, perceptions and value code of the host state. Especially for countries exposed to threats and dangers like Greece, when it comes to people who many times we don’t even know where they come from, whose actions they might be, if they are a national danger or not.

Just to note, that according to the aforementioned EUROSTAT survey, of the 75,921 births in 2022, 23,000 are foreign born. If this trend continues in 2050, the Greeks as a whole will make up only 63% of the then-shrinking total population!!

The upheaval of the post-war European model of economic growth, social welfare and cohesion, insecurity and uncertainty about the future, worsening demographic trends and the promotion by some circles of mass immigration as a solution to Europe’s demographic and labor problem were bound to cause and political consequences. Political parties that have been protagonists for many decades are disappearing, the smooth rotation in power of moderate parties with not diametrically opposed orientations is a thing of the past. Swelling segments of the population express dissatisfaction, disappointment, alienation. Often even voting not out of conviction but out of rejection.

European political leaders must listen carefully and respond persuasively to the concerns of citizens, especially those who are affected by these phenomena and see their lives changing for the worse. They have to lean into their problems, listen to their concerns, explain that they really care about them.. Because highly elitist attitudes do not fit. Disparaging and pejorative characterizations only add fuel to the fire. People need respect for their values, traditions and roots, their patriotism and national identity, the role of the family, their religious faith. They need to be convinced that their own rights cannot be equally respected in the name of rights.

The finding that demographics has become a major national problem, as is also shown in this conference, is not open to dispute. Therefore, its treatment is a top and immediate national priority. However, this undertaking is anything but easy.

Firstly, because we are called upon not just to stop a long-term development, but to drastically reverse the negative trend.

Secondly, because the effort should go beyond established social conditions, perceptions and habits that have been formed over time.

Thirdly, because the issue is not the adoption of only some positive measures of a piecemeal nature but a long-term, coherent strategy. There is always the danger of “too little too late”. After all, some measures have already been taken and several have been announced, but they need to be expanded and become more permanent.

Fourthly, because the implementation of such a strategy necessarily presupposes the elements of consistency, continuity, complementarity and persistence over time, elements that do not normally characterize our public life. Especially for an effort, the results of which will not become tangible until decades later.

And fifth, because many of the imposed policies have a de facto economic cost, which means, among other things, an additional fiscal burden but perhaps also cuts to other political priorities.

Bearing this in mind, in any case the elaboration and implementation of a comprehensive and targeted family policy is required. Simply put, policy to support the family and increase fertility. Such a policy includes, on the one hand, a network of measures and incentives of a fiscal, labor and benefit nature. And on the other, a corresponding set of measures of a social nature related to care during infancy, access to education, medical coverage. A key parameter in this package is a facilitation policy for new couples to acquire housing.

It should be noted that, in this direction, the gradual assimilation of three children to those with many children is of special value. It was attempted in 2007 with notable and measurable results, undone in the years of the memorandums.

It is clear that in order for such a strategy to be adopted in practice and above all to be effective, a necessary condition is to be based in a smooth and prosperous economy. High indicators of economic growth, a business environment attractive to new investments with an emphasis on cutting-edge sectors of new technologies and energy, more and better jobs. Not only because they provide the necessary fiscal space, but primarily because they create more favorable conditions for young people to take the initiative and do their family planning.

Of course, substantial development also means spreading the generated wealth to the many, opportunities for all, mitigating social inequalities, supporting the less favored. When Janet Yellen, former head of the US Federal Reserve and current Secretary of the Treasury, points out from 2014 that “it is no secret that the last decades of widening inequality can coincide with large income and wealth gains for the top of the social pyramid and stagnating living conditions for the many’ need no further comment on the problem facing the Western world as a whole. Development and prosperity only really exist on the basis of a prosperous society.

In this logic, two priorities gain special importance. First, the flourishing and well-being of small and medium enterprises with the flexibility and adaptability that distinguishes them. However, they also need greater support in their access to financial tools, mainly from the banking system, and in facilitating their export orientation.

Secondly, the need to support regional development and the primary sector. After all, the demographic, in addition to its acuteness, also has an additional aggravating structural characteristic. The depopulation of the region with a corresponding permanent expansion of the urban population, the desolation of villages, the decline of agricultural production which is already affected by the climate crisis. Supporting producers, agricultural exports and healthy cooperative enterprises are necessary steps to arrest at least this phenomenon.

A very serious related issue is the departure from Greece of more than 450,000 people during the years of the crisis, the famous Brain Drain. Not only, as already emphasized, because of the large number, but also primarily in terms of qualifications, education and specialization, their quality level. Therefore, the coordinated effort to repatriate them takes precedence.

In this direction, the finding of the aforementioned research of the Brain Regain initiative that approximately 60% of them are willing to return even with a lower salary is crucial. Obviously, the economic well-being of the country, investment and better jobs play a key role, but it is not everything, perhaps not even the main factor.

According to the same research, the primary reasons for their willingness to return are their desire to live in their homeland, reunification with their parents and families, the climate, human relationships, mainly emotional criteria, which are related to the quality of life in the country and with their roots.

Of decisive importance, always during the same survey, is their answer to the question “what is the security you would like to return”. First place is occupied by meritocracy, transparency and safety, above the level of remuneration and benefits. In other words, they assume that the country is lagging behind in these areas. Hard to try to disprove them. Consequently, the substantial improvement of our performance as a state in consolidating rules of meritocracy, in the swift and efficient operation of justice and in the protection of citizens from crime become fundamental priorities.

We live in a world much more difficult, more complicated, more unpredictable than the one in which we were born and raised. The constants we took for granted are no longer valid. Countless conflicts, violence, limitless rivalries at all levels from exceptions have become the norm and everyday life. No country, no matter how powerful, can impose its will on the multipolar world that has already dawned. International law and agreements are rarely respected, often flouted and violated.

Don’t wait for things to improve on the international stage. Everything shows that it will get worse, more fluid, more uncertain, more dangerous! ominous clouds weigh on the horizon and there is a high chance of storms. Especially for our country which is at such a critical geopolitical crossroads.

It is in these conditions that Hellenism must survive and stand tall. One of the biggest, possibly the biggest, challenges we face is demographic. If we do not act now, immediately, decisively, it will become an existential problem. I’m not talking to you politically, make no mistake, and I’m even less talking to you partisan. I’m talking to you nationally. We must act now and act strongly! The answers we seek are visible and pass through our consciousness. It’s enough to listen to her, which means a national alarm!”.