The West Shouldn’t Deny the Big Picture on Turkey’s Erdogan

It is time to check the power Turkey seeks to exert on the global stage, diplomatically, economically and, when its proxies operate outside Turkey’s recognized borders, militarily as well.

By Michael Rubin

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has a plan. Eighteen years into his rule, he has transformed Turkey at home and on the world stage. Erdoğan’s ambition is greater than simply reviving Turkey’s Ottoman heritage and making Turkey a regional player. Rather, he seeks to reshape the post-World War II liberal order.

Erdoğan makes no secrets of this. His slogan “The World is Bigger than Five” is a rejection of the power that the permanent UN Security Council members hold. Sami Kohen, who for six decades has observed Turkey in a Milliyet column, wrote that Erdoğan’s “priority [is] in the creation of a new world order.”

To do this, Erdoğan turns precedent on its head, dismisses diplomacy, shoots first, and counts on Western inaction to get away with it. He has questioned, for example, the legitimacy of the 1923 Lausanne Treaty setting Turkey’s borders; his cronies publish maps incorporating neighbors’ territory into a greater Turkey. These are crystal balls: While Erdoğan justified Turkey’s Syria intervention as counterterrorism, his forces subsequently ethnically cleansed Kurdish districts, opened Turkish post offices, and even issued Turkish ID cards to those under its occupation.

The same holds true for Iraq. Erdoğan has not only resurrected nearly century-old claims to Mosul and oil-rich Kirkuk, but also deployed 1,150 troops into Iraqi territory. Incursions are frequent; withdrawals rare.

Turkey’s belligerence puts the Aegean and Mediterranean on edge. Turkish forces threaten Greek islands and challenge exclusive economic zones in the Mediterranean. As Turkey’s occupation of northern Cyprus nears a half-century, Erdoğan shreds the status quo: He has moved into Varosha in defiance of UN resolutions and he transformed occupied Lefkoniko airport into a drone base that puts the eastern Mediterranean and much of North Africa in his crosshairs. Islamist settlers overrun Turkish Cypriot communities.