A Negotiated Peace Is the Only Road For Israelis and Palestinians

EDITOR’S NOTE (Nick Stamatakis): Helleniscope was down for 2-3 days because of a malware attack.  We are now back – stronger than before.  Many thanks to our friends George and Gail of Monomakhos.com for their help; it was much appreciated… And to all of you for your sincere concerns!

By Nick Stamatakis

I do not pretend to be an expert in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a long-standing and complicated issue even for those who are experts. But since I have spent quite a few years studying the Greek-Turkish ethnic conflict in Cyprus, just a few hundred miles away, and lived there for an academic year, I know enough about the Middle East to frame the current conflict as follows:

• The geopolitical interests of the Great Powers (US, Russia, China) and to a lesser extent of some regional powers (Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia) are more critical in determining any peace plan, which will likely be a negotiated solution rather than the result of a military conflict. I assume the world’s leaders will not be so suicidal as to risk escalating the current military conflict into a nuclear war.
• In a region where 2,000-year-old historical events are discussed in media and everyday life as if they happened yesterday, trying to put all the blame on one side or the other is counterproductive and negates the supposed “humanistic” motives of those “enraged” by the “massacres” of innocent civilians on either side… It does not help AT ALL to present one side as angels and the other as devils. But there are some “standardized” views in the Middle East: the Arabs, more so than the Greeks, have long historic perceptions of the Turks as barbaric aggressors, while the Jews/Israelis (also for their own “historic” reasons) have viewed the Ottomans/Turks positively… Having said that, “standardized” perceptions are the biggest part of the problem in the area.
• The West has a long history of supporting both sides of any conflict in the Middle East, following the famed British imperial policy of “divide and rule”; it has failed miserably in settling any “ethnic” issues in the area and has wasted ALL the trust and political capital it had available in the area: the West cannot act as a “mediator” anymore.

Current news and facts verify the above “framework”:

• Yes, Hamas’s acts were atrocious, no debate there. But the reality is that “if you sow winds you reap the whirlwind”.  Gaza is a limited space, 25 miles long x 5 miles wide, which former conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron yesterday called an “open-air prison”.  Two million people live there, 50% of which are underage children!! These two million people have no right to move outside (with a few occasional exceptions for a few thousand who are allowed to work in Israel). Why don’t we hear these FACTS in our news? Half the population of Gaza suffers from mental diseases with 50% having serious anxieties and insecurity.  Are we then surprised by how they feel and act? Even if they were free from Iranian and other external actors, they would be easily agitated… The great Israeli sociologist Baruch Kimmerling, who died early, called  Gaza in his book “Politicide”, the “world’s largest concentration camp”! 

• Just two days ago, Congressman Michael Mc Caul, who is not simply any congressman but the House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman, verified that Egypt had warned Israel days in advance of an upcoming significant event in Gaza.   The Israeli PM Mr. Netanyahu, described the information as fake news but he had a tough time convincing anyone with minimal experience in the area that the Israeli and Western intelligence failed so miserably.  The amount of weapons used by Hamas was huge and could not have fallen from the sky unnoticed.
• Just two days ago, former President Trump expressed his own reservations about the leadership of Mr.Netanyahu saying that “Netanyahu let us down just before the U.S. killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in 2020. He also said Israeli leaders needed to step up their game and referred to Hezbollah, the group Israel fears may launch a large-scale attack from the country’s north, as “very smart.” In an interview that aired Thursday, he added to his criticism, saying Netanyahu “was not prepared” for the deadly weekend incursion from Gaza. (link here to the AP report). Trump was attacked and misinterpreted by the mainstream media; what he meant is that Hezbollah has already defeated Israel militarily in Lebanon twice and if they get involved Israel will surely need all 300,000 reservists it has mobilized.

If the above news does not prove to you that in the Middle East things are never “black and white” and never actually are what they look on the surface – sinister games are always being played in the background – here are some more developments that further show the failure of Israel’s and America’s leadership:

• Just days ago, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) held their first-ever telephone conversation late on Wednesday to discuss “the need to end war crimes against Palestine”.  We have stated before that Israel is facing for the first time since its 1946 inception all its enemies unified. At the same time, it was clear that the “normalization” talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia were no more…
• Come January 1st, five major Middle Eastern countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Ethiopia) will be part of the BRICS coalition.  It seems that the BRICS may have a better chance of achieving a ceasefire in Gaza – if not a greater peace deal.
• Turkey’s current position is as adventurist as ever, with Erdogan openly blaming Israel and supporting Hamas while accusing the US of sending two aircraft carrier groups to the region.  The Gaza developments have pushed Turkey further eastward into the “Eurasian Coalition” with Russia, Iran, and China”.  This particular turn of events, if handled wisely by Greece and Cyprus (doubtful due to the corrupt and incompetent leadership of Mitsotakis), could prove beneficial for the Cyprus problem: A new “Yalta Agreement” between the Great Powers (US, Russia, China) could leave Cyprus and Greece as the Easternmost border of the West, as the only lifeline to Israel, and end up making the Turkish occupation of Northern Cyprus unsustainable.  But we shall return soon to a full analysis of this “scenario”.
• Says Paul Craig Roberts in a very interesting article (link here): “…Netanyahu’s plan to complete the conquest of Palestine could result in Israel’s destruction.  On the other hand, the enmity among Muslims could again result in Muslim impotence and Israel’s success. My initial view was that Hamas’ attack would result in the disappearance of Palestine and no one would interfere.  Now I am unsure.  Netanyahu could be setting off a wider conflict from which Israel would not emerge a victor, and Washington would have to choose between accepting defeat and using nuclear weapons.”

Conclusions

With Israel backed into a corner thanks to the policies of Netanyahu, with Iran, Turkey and All Arab/Islamic states in the Middle East unified against it, there is really no gain for Israel to cause more massacres among the Palestinians in Gaza than they have already suffered.  On the opposite, there is a serious risk of the whole situation backfiring militarily and politically.  The internal criticism in Israel against Netanyahu alone would be enough to force him to the negotiating table – if not to resignation.  The only serious option, (unless the powers-that-be in DC and London have decided to go to a nuclear war – very doubtful because they will be the first to die), is to allow cool-headed diplomats from Russia, China, and the U.S. to forge a ceasefire agreement that would be then followed by more substantive peace talks.