Trump’s Hormuz Tanker Insurance Plan — and Iran’s Likely Countermove

ΕΑΝ ΠΡΟΤΙΜΑΤΕ ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΑ ΠΑΤΗΣΤΕ ΤΗ ΣΗΜΑΙΑ ΣΤΟ ΚΑΤΩ ΜΕΡΟΣ ΤΗΣ ΟΘΟΝΗΣ

Global oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow corridor carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply—has been shaken by escalating tensions with Iran. Tanker attacks, missile threats, and soaring war-risk premiums have pushed insurers to withdraw coverage and forced ships to halt or reroute.

Now President Trump is floating an unusual countermeasure: the U.S. government would provide insurance guarantees for tankers transiting the Gulf, while the U.S. Navy escorts vessels through the strait if necessary. (In fact, this idea may have originated in a Zerohedge article – but read their report today – link here).

The idea is straightforward.
Iran’s leverage isn’t naval superiority—it’s risk. By making the Strait dangerous, Tehran drives insurers away and freezes shipping. Washington’s plan attempts to break that chokehold: if the U.S. replaces private insurance and provides military protection, tankers may return despite Iranian threats.

But from Tehran’s perspective, this directly undermines its most powerful economic weapon.

Iran’s likely response would unfold along three lines.

First: the propaganda front.
Iran will frame the policy as the militarization of global energy trade—accusing Washington of turning international waters into a U.S.-controlled corridor.

Second: asymmetric escalation.
Rather than confronting the U.S. Navy directly, Iran would likely increase harassment operations—mines, drones, missiles, and fast-boat swarms—to keep risk high enough that shipping companies still hesitate to sail.

Third: expanding the battlefield.
If escorts make the Strait safer, Iran may shift pressure elsewhere in the region—targeting energy infrastructure or activating allied militias.

One key player here is Ansar Allah, commonly known as the Houthis. Backed by Iran, the group has already demonstrated its ability to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea.

If the Hormuz corridor becomes heavily protected, Tehran could encourage the Houthis to intensify attacks in the Red Sea, effectively opening a second maritime front. That would stretch naval resources and keep global shipping routes unstable even if the Strait itself is secured.

The strategy is classic Iranian doctrine: avoid direct confrontation with the U.S., widen the battlefield, and raise the economic cost until pressure forces negotiations.

In short, Trump’s tanker-insurance proposal is an attempt to neutralize Iran’s economic leverage without launching a full military campaign.

Whether it succeeds will depend on one question: Can Iran still make global shipping dangerous enough to stop the tankers?

If the answer is yes, the world could be heading toward a broader maritime conflict stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.

One thing we know for sure: China will have a say in this and a great interest in seeing the war limited, for many reasons, and because it buys huge amounts of cheap oil from Iran. We note that the Chinese Foreign Minister had a phone call with his Israeli counterpart today and we cab imagine he had to raise his voice a few times…

Sources

• Reuters – US considering tanker insurance support and naval escorts: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-considering-oil-tanker-insurance-support-ease-middle-east-crude-shipments-2026-03-03/

• Business Insider – Trump offers naval protection for oil tankers: https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-iran-war-navy-escort-oil-tankers-strait-of-hormuz-2026-3

• Time – Global trade risks if Hormuz shipping disrupted: https://time.com/7382242/strait-of-hormuz-closure-threat-iran-war-trade-gas-oil-prices/

• The Guardian – Iranian threats to shipping and Gulf exports: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/03/iran-has-largely-halted-oil-and-gas-exports-through-strait-of-hormuz

• CSIS – Houthi attacks on maritime trade routes: https://www.csis.org/analysis/houthi-attacks-red-sea-shipping-and-global-trade